Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections
Abstract
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are not expected to simulate the specific timing of these somewhat random phenomena - the occurrence of which may impact the realized trend. Therefore, to assess model performance, we develop distributions of projected temperature trends from a collection of climate models running the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. We evaluate where observed trends of length 5 to 15 years fall within the distribution of model trends of the same length. We find that current trends lie near the lower limits of the model distributions, with cumulative probability-of-occurrence values typically between 5 percent and 20 percent, and probabilities below 5 percent not uncommon. Our results indicate cause for concern regarding the consistency between climate model projections and observed climate behavior under conditions of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1309.5164,
title = {Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections},
author = {Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. Knappenberger and John R. Christy and Chad S. Herman and Lucia M. Liljegren and James D. Annan},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1309.5164},
year = {2013}
}