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This study investigates temporal variability in U.S. climate using harmonic decomposition techniques, specifically Fourier and wavelet transforms. Monthly temperature, precipitation, and drought index data from the National Oceanic and…
Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a…
High-energy atmospheric muon neutrinos are detected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory with a high rate of almost a hundred thousand events per year. Being mainly produced in meson decays in cosmic-ray-induced air showers in the upper…
Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently.…
In the analysis of commodity futures, it is commonly assumed that futures prices are driven by two latent factors: short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium price levels. In this study, we extend this framework by introducing a…
Solar activity drives space weather, affecting Earth's magnetosphere and technological infrastructure, which makes accurate solar flare forecasting critical. Current space weather models under-utilize multi-modal solar data, lack iterative…
The European Union Emission Trading Scheme is a carbon emission allowance trading system designed by Europe to achieve emission reduction targets. The amount of carbon emission caused by production activities is closely related to the…
Over its multibillion-year history, the Earth has experienced a wide range of climates. The long-term climate is controlled by the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is regulated by marine sequestration through chemical…
We study valuation of swing options on commodity markets when the commodity prices are driven by multiple factors. The factors are modeled as diffusion processes driven by a multidimensional L\'evy process. We set up a valuation model in…
Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…
In this study we continue to search for possible manifestations of space weather influence on prices of agricultural products and consumables. We note that the connection between solar activity and prices is based on the causal chain that…
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the precipitation extremes in Indonesia during the rainy season (October to April) has been evaluated using the daily station rain gauge data and the gridded Asian Precipitation Highly…
Purpose: Trading on electricity markets occurs such that the price settlement takes place before delivery, often day-ahead. In practice, these prices are highly volatile as they largely depend upon a range of variables such as electricity…
The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important driver of global weather and climate extremes, but its prediction in operational dynamical models remains challenging, with skillful forecasts typically limited to 3-4 weeks. Here, we…
The electricity consumption forecasting is a critical component of the intelligent power system. And accurate monthly electricity consumption forecasting, as one of the the medium and long term electricity consumption forecasting problems,…
Demand forecasting in the online fashion industry is particularly amendable to global, data-driven forecasting models because of the industry's set of particular challenges. These include the volume of data, the irregularity, the high…
Projected changes in summer precipitation deficits partly depend on alterations in synoptic circulations. Here, the automated Jenkinson-Collison (JC) classification is used to assess the ability of twenty-one Global Climate Models (GCMs) to…
Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they also function as coordination mechanisms: public…
Several energy management applications rely on accurate photovoltaic generation forecasts. Common metrics like mean absolute error or root-mean-square error, omit error-distribution details needed for stochastic optimization. In addition,…