Related papers: Exact and approximate formulas for contact tracing…
We consider Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models on dense dynamic random graphs, in which the joint dynamics of vertices and edges are co-evolutionary, i.e., they influence each other bidirectionally. In particular, edges appear and…
In this study, a new and natural way of constructing a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is proposed. This approach is natural in the sense that the disease transmission rate, $\beta$, is substituted with a generic,…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is studied in multilayer networks with arbitrary number of links across the layers. By following the mapping to bond percolation we give the analytical expression for the epidemic threshold and…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
We present an evaluation of the effectiveness of manual contact tracing compared to bulletin board contact tracing. We show that bulletin board contact tracing gives comparable results in terms of the reproductive number, duration,…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of…
To better describe the spread of a disease, we extend a discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We assume the dependence on time of the number of daily encounters and include a parameter to represent a…
This paper is focused on SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) epidemic dynamics (also known as the contact process) on populations modelled by homogeneous Poisson point processes of the Euclidean plane, where the infection rate of a…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…
We propose the following simple stochastic model for phylogenetic trees. New types are born and die according to a birth and death chain. At each birth we associate a fitness to the new type sampled from a fixed distribution. At each death…
Compartmental transmission models have become an invaluable tool to study the dynamics of infectious diseases. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is known to have an exact semi-analytical solution. In the current study, the…
It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others…
This article describes a simple Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model fitting with COVID-19 data for the month of march 2020 in New York (NY) state. The model is a classical SIR, but is non-autonomous; the rate of susceptible people…
We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…
Models with several levels of mixing (households, workplaces), as well as various corresponding formulations for R0, have been proposed in the literature. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of the distribution of the…
We consider the spread of a supercritical stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemic on a configuration model random graph. We mainly focus on the final stages of a large outbreak and provide limit results for the duration…
When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…