Related papers: Exact and approximate formulas for contact tracing…
Although we have made progress in understanding disease spread in complex systems with non-Poissonian activity patterns, current models still fail to capture the full range of recovery time distributions. In this paper, we propose an…
The message passing approach of Karrer and Newman [Phys. Rev. E 82, 016101 (2010)] is an exact and practicable representation of susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics on finite trees. Here we show that, assuming Poisson contact processes,…
Contagious processes, such as spread of infectious diseases, social behaviors, or computer viruses, affect biological, social, and technological systems. Epidemic models for large populations and finite populations on networks have been…
Empirical studies suggest that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event times, meaning that intervals of high activity are followed by periods of inactivity. Combined with birth and death of individuals, these temporal constraints…
Most models of epidemic spread, including many designed specifically for COVID-19, implicitly assume mass-action contact patterns and undirected contact networks, meaning that the individuals most likely to spread the disease are also the…
While circular data occur in a wide range of scientific fields, the methodology for distributional modeling and probabilistic forecasting of circular response variables is rather limited. Most of the existing methods are built on the…
In this paper, we present a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with individuals wearing facial masks and individuals who do not. The disease transmission rates, the recovering rates and the fraction of individuals who wear masks are…
We present a unified mathematical approach to epidemiological models with parametric heterogeneity, i.e., to the models that describe individuals in the population as having specific parameter (trait) values that vary from one individuals…
Consider the following stochastic model for immune response. Each pathogen gives birth to a new pathogen at rate $\lambda$. When a new pathogen is born, it has the same type as its parent with probability $1 - r$. With probability $r$, a…
Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…
We consider a distributed detection system with communication constraints, where several nodes are arranged in an arbitrary tree topology, under the assumption of conditionally independent observations. We propose a cyclic design procedure…
We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…
Genetic sequence data of pathogens are increasingly used to investigate transmission dynamics in both endemic diseases and disease outbreaks; such research can aid in development of appropriate interventions and in design of studies to…
Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a theoretical perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact…
By means of numerical simulations and epidemic analysis, the transition point of the stochastic, asynchronous Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on a square lattice is found to be c_0=0.1765005(10), where c is the probability a…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model in the case of a population of pathogens infecting a homogeneous host population. The pathogen population is structured by a genotypic variable. When the initial mass of the…
The contact process is a simple model for the spread of an infection in a structured population. We consider a variant of this process on Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson trees, where vertices are equipped with a random fitness representing…
The recursive and hierarchical structure of full rooted trees is applicable to represent statistical models in various areas, such as data compression, image processing, and machine learning. In most of these cases, the full rooted tree is…