Related papers: Exact and approximate formulas for contact tracing…
A compositional tree refers to a tree structure on a set of random variables where each random variable is a node and composition occurs at each non-leaf node of the tree. As a generalization of compositional data, compositional trees…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
Infectious disease transmission dynamics are particularly sensitive to social contact patterns, and the precautions people take to limit disease transmission. It depends on the age distribution of the community. Thus, knowing the…
We introduce a Reed-Frost epidemic model with recursive contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission. This generalizes the branching-process model introduced by the authors in a previous work [arxiv:2004.07237] to finite populations and…
Clustered data, which arise when observations are nested within groups, are incredibly common in clinical, education, and social science research. Traditionally, a linear mixed model, which includes random effects to account for…
We analyze a Markovian SIR epidemic model where individuals either recover naturally or are diagnosed, leading to isolation and potential contact tracing. Our focus is on digital contact tracing via a tracing app, considering both its…
We make the first steps towards generalizing the theory of stochastic block models, in the sparse regime, towards a model where the discrete community structure is replaced by an underlying geometry. We consider a geometric random graph…
Face-to-face interactions reveal recurring patterns, suggesting the possibility of shared underlying mechanisms. More specifically, inter-contact durations, contact durations and number of contacts per edge share similar heavy-tail…
Contacts between people are the absolute drivers of contagious respiratory infections. For this reason, limiting and tracking contacts is a key strategy for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Digital contact tracing has been proposed as…
We study the spread of discrete-time epidemics over arbitrary networks for well-known propagation models, namely SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible), SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered), SIRS (susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible)…
We study several bayesian inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models on networks from a statistical physics viewpoint. We derive equations which allow to accurately compute the posterior distribution of the time…
We propose a new network-based SIR epidemic model in which transmission is modulated by a curvature-weighted contact matrix that encodes structural and geometric features of the underlying graph. The formulation encompasses both…
This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected neighbors at some rate $\omega$ (and reconnect to non-infectious individuals with probability…
The transmission rate of many acute infectious diseases varies significantly in time, but the underlying mechanisms are usually uncertain. They may include seasonal changes in the environment, contact rate, immune system response, etc. The…
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…
The shapes of branching trees have been linked to disease transmission patterns. In this paper we use the general Crump-Mode-Jagers branching process to model an outbreak of an infectious disease under mild assumptions. Introducing a new…
The robustness of human social networks against epidemic propagation relies on the propensity for physical contact adaptation. During the early phase of infection, asymptomatic carriers exhibit the same activity level as susceptible…
Measuring the complexity of tree structures can be beneficial in areas that use tree data structures for storage, communication, and processing purposes. This complexity can then be used to compress tree data structures to their…
We show existence of a non-trivial phase transition for the contact process, a simple model for infection without immunity, on a network which reacts dynamically to the infection trying to prevent an epidemic. This network initially has the…