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We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models of epidemics, with possibly time-varying rates, on a class of networks that are locally tree-like, which includes sparse…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-22 Juniper Cocomello , Kavita Ramanan

Contact tracing can be thought of as a race between two processes: an infection process and a tracing process. In this paper, we study a simple model of infection spreading on a tree, and a tracer who stabilizes one node at a time. We focus…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Michela Meister , Jon Kleinberg

Compartmental epidemic models, grounded in mass-action kinetics, often assume homogeneous mixing. Although this neglects network structure, recent results show that for Poisson random graphs, the classical SIR model, especially the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-28 Akshara Bhat , Abhishek Deshpande , Chittaranjan Hens , Subrata Ghosh

We consider a Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model, where the mechanism for the renewal of susceptibles is demographic, on a ring with next nearest neighbour interactions, and a family of correlated pair approximations (CPA),…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-06-04 Jerome Benoit , Ana Nunes , Margarida Telo da Gama

Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-23 Frank Ball , Thomas House

A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Jan B. Broekaert , Davide La Torre , Faizal Hafiz

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Frank Ball , David Sirl , Pieter Trapman

The spread of infectious disease in a human community or the proliferation of fake news on social media can be modeled as a randomly growing tree-shaped graph. The history of the random growth process is often unobserved but contains…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-15 Harry Crane , Min Xu

In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-05-23 Rui Yang , Bing-Hong Wang , Jie Ren , Wen-Jie Bai , Zhi-Wen Shi , Wen-Xu Wang , Tao Zhou

The contact process is a simple model for the spread of an infection in a structured population. We investigate the case when the underlying structure evolves dynamically as a degree-dependent dynamical percolation model. Starting with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Natalia Cardona-Tobón , Marcel Ortgiese , Marco Seiler , Anja Sturm

In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-29 Frank G. Ball , David J. Sirl , Pieter Trapman

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is the canonical model of epidemics of infections that make people immune upon recovery. Many of the open questions in computational epidemiology concern the underlying contact structure's…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-06-09 Petter Holme

We study extensions of the classical SIR model of epidemic spread. First, we consider a single population modified SIR epidemics model in which the contact rate is allowed to be an arbitrary function of the fraction of susceptible and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-12-17 Martina Alutto , Giacomo Como , Fabio Fagnani

We study an individual-based stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity on a large random graph, capturing individual heterogeneity and non-homogeneous connectivity. Each individual is associated with particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Aurélien Velleret

The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-16 Ryan Wilkinson , Marcus Roper

An understanding of the disease spreading phenomenon based on a mathematical model is extremely needed for the implication of the correct policy measures to contain the disease propagation. Here, we report a new model namely the Ising-SIR…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-04 Dipak Patra

In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-09 Martin Dottori , Gabriel Fabricius

We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-17 Rory Humphries , Kieran Mulchrone , Jamie Tratalos , Simon More , Philipp Hövel

We present a contact-based model to study the spreading of epidemics by means of extending the dynamic message passing approach to temporal networks. The shift in perspective from node- to edge-centric quantities enables accurate modelling…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-08-07 Andreas Koher , Hartmut H. K. Lentz , James P. Gleeson , Philipp Hövel

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-09-11 Eric Forgoston , Ira B. Schwartz