Time-dependent non-homogeneous stochastic epidemic model of SIR type
Populations and Evolution
2022-09-30 v1 Probability
Abstract
To better describe the spread of a disease, we extend a discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We assume the dependence on time of the number of daily encounters and include a parameter to represent a possible quarantine of the infectious individuals. We provide an analytic description of this Markovian model and investigate its dynamics. Both a diffusion approximation and the basic reproduction number are derived. Through several simulations, we show how the evolution of a disease is affected by the distribution of the number of daily encounters and its dependence on time.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2209.14769,
title = {Time-dependent non-homogeneous stochastic epidemic model of SIR type},
author = {Mireia Besalú and Giulia Binotto},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.14769},
year = {2022}
}