English

Extinction time of stochastic SIRS models with small initial size of the infected population

Probability 2021-01-14 v1

Abstract

The stochastic SIRS model is a continuous-time Markov chain modelling the spread of infectious diseases with temporary immunity, in a homogeneously-mixing population of fixed size NN. We study the scaling behaviour of the extinction time of stochastic SIRS models as NN tends to infinity. When the initial size of infected population is small, we obtain the closed-form expression of the asymptotic distribution of this extinction time, and compare it with the data from Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2101.04857,
  title  = {Extinction time of stochastic SIRS models with small initial size of the infected population},
  author = {Jingran Zhai},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2101.04857},
  year   = {2021}
}