English

Critical scaling of stochastic epidemic models

Probability 2009-09-29 v1

Abstract

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent pp-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite populations of size NN are situated at the sites of a lattice and infectious contacts are limited to individuals at neighboring sites. Scaling laws for both the mean-field and spatial models are given when the infection parameter pp is such that the epidemics are critical. It is shown that in all cases there is a critical threshold for the numbers initially infected: below the threshold, the epidemic evolves in essentially the same manner as its branching envelope, but at the threshold evolves like a branching process with a size-dependent drift.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.0709.1039,
  title  = {Critical scaling of stochastic epidemic models},
  author = {Steven P. Lalley},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0709.1039},
  year   = {2009}
}

Comments

Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921707000000346 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

R2 v1 2026-06-21T09:14:57.041Z