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Extreme events are the major weather-related hazard for humanity. It is then of crucial importance to have a good understanding of their statistics and to be able to forecast them. However, lack of sufficient data makes their study…
Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…
We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…
Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…
Control of cooling and heating processes is essential in many industrial and biological processes. In fact, the time evolution of an observable quantity may differ according to the previous history of the system. For example, a system that…
Heatwaves are known to arise from the interplay between large-scale climate variability, synoptic weather patterns and regional to local scale surface processes. While recent research has made important progress for each individual…
Record-breaking temperature events are now frequently in the news, proffered as evidence of climate change, and often bring significant economic and human impacts. Our previous work undertook the first substantial spatial modelling…
Extreme weather events, such as windstorms and heatwaves, are driven by persistent atmospheric circulation patterns that evolve over several consecutive days. While traditional circulation-based studies often focus on instantaneous…
We may anticipate that climate change will bring changes to the intensity and variability of near surface winds, either through local effects or by altering the large-scale flow. The impact of climate change on European wind resources has…
New observational facilities are beginning to enable insights into the three-dimensional (3D) nature of exoplanets. Transmission spectroscopy is the most widely used method for characterizing transiting temperate exoplanet's atmospheres,…
Severe thunderstorms can have devastating impacts. Concurrently high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are known to be conducive to severe weather, so high values of…
The low-frequency variability of the mid-latitude atmosphere involves complex nonlinear and chaotic dynamical processes posing predictability challenges. It is characterized by sporadically recurring, often long-lived patterns of…
Extreme weather events, rare yet profoundly impactful, are often accompanied by severe conditions. Increasing global temperatures are poised to exacerbate these events, resulting in greater human casualties, economic losses, and ecological…
Severe local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features--including southerly Great Plains low-level jets,…
Nonparametric resampling methods such as Direct Sampling are powerful tools to simulate new datasets preserving important data features such as spatial patterns from observed datasets while using only minimal assumptions. However, such…
There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…
The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max-stable processes or $r$-Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often…
Context: Flux emergence in the solar atmosphere is a complex process that causes a release of magnetic energy as heat and acceleration of solar plasma at a variety of spatial scales. Methods: We analysed imaging spectropolarimetric data…
Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which…
We use a simple, semi-analytic, column model to better understand the meridional structure of the tropopause height and the future changes in its height and temperature associated with global warming. The model allows us to separate the…