Related papers: Synoptic circulation patterns during temperature e…
We present best-fit values of porosity -- and the corresponding effective thermal inertiae -- determined from three different depths in Europa's near-subsurface (~1-20 cm). The porosity of the upper ~20 cm of Europa's subsurface varies…
Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs) can have devastating consequences such as floods and landslides, posing a great threat to society and the economy. Predicting such events long in advance can support the mitigation of negative impacts.…
The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been…
This study presents an advanced framework for tropopause detection and analysis using ERA5 reanalysis data, with particular application to extreme meteorological events affecting Morocco and Southern Europe. The research implements and…
This paper presents (Lagrangian) variational formulations for single and multicomponent semi-compressible fluids with both reversible (entropy-conserving) and irreversible (entropy-generating) processes. Semi-compressible fluids are useful…
The surface evapotranspiration (SFCEVP) plays an essential role in climate, being the link between the hydrological and energy cycles. Therefore, how it is approximated and its implication in the regional climate are important aspects to…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other…
One of the common approximations in long-term evolution studies of small bodies is the use of circular orbits averaging the actual eccentric ones, facilitating the coupling of processes with very different timescales, such as the orbital…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human population in health terms, but also on biodiversity and agriculture. This motivated…
In this study, we begin a comprehensive characterisation of temperature extremes in Ireland for the period 1981-2010. We produce return levels of anomalies of daily maximum temperature extremes for an area over Ireland, for the 30-year…
Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…
Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system…
This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural changes in the Central England temperature series, one of the longest surface temperature records available. A changepoint analysis is performed to detect abrupt changes, which can be…
Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…
In this study we compare the representation of the southern hemisphere midlatitude winter variability in the NCEP-NCAR and ERA40 reanalyses. We use the classical Hayashi spectral technique, recently applied to compare the description of the…
Atmospheric circulation is often clustered in so-called circulation regimes, which are persistent and recurrent patterns. For the Euro-Atlantic sector in winter, most studies identify four regimes: the Atlantic Ridge, the Scandinavian…
Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…