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The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…
We analyze the occurrence and the values of record-breaking temperatures in daily and monthly temperature observations. Our aim is to better understand and quantify the statistics of temperature records in the context of global warming.…
The Mediterranean is strongly affected by Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs), sometimes leading to negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate…
We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…
The identification of regions of similar climatological behavior can be utilized for the discovery of spatial relationships over long-range scales, including teleconnections. In this regard, the global picture of the interdependence…
Weather and climate extremes such as heatwaves are crucial climate hazards to people and ecosystems worldwide. In any region, climate change may alter their characteristics in complex ways so that rigorous and holistic quantification of the…
Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…
Earth's atmosphere is in a state far from thermodynamic equilibrium. For example, the large scale equator-to-pole temperature gradient is maintained by tropical heating, polar cooling, and a midlatitude meridional eddy heat flux…
Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…
The areal modeling of the extremes of a natural process such as rainfall or temperature is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extreme areal rainfall is crucial in flood protection. This article reviews recent…
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…
In this study we consider the problem of detecting and quantifying changes in the distribution of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) in a large gridded data set of European daily temperature during the years 1950-2018.…
Recent extreme value theory literature has seen significant emphasis on the modelling of spatial extremes, with comparatively little consideration of spatio-temporal extensions. This neglects an important feature of extreme events: their…
Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…
Previous studies have identified an association between near-surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and weak stratospheric polar westerlies. Large regions in northern Asia, Europe and North America have been found to cool…
Long memory and circulation patterns are potential sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Here, we infer one-dimensional nonlinear stochastic models of daily temperature which capture both long memory and external driving by the…
We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent random variables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rate is proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation of the…
The limit of small entropy production is reached in relaxing systems long after preparation, and in stationary driven systems in the limit of small driving power. Surprisingly, for extended systems this limit is not in general the…
This paper presents a statistical analysis of air temperature data from 32 stations in Italy and the UK up to 2000 m above sea level, from 2002 to 2021. The data came from both highland and lowland areas, in order to evaluate both the…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…