Related papers: Synoptic circulation patterns during temperature e…
The atmospheric meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is mainly accomplished by planetary and synoptic waves. A decomposition into wave components highlights the strong seasonal dependence of the transport,…
We study the hemispheric to continental scale regimes that lead to summertime heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere. By using a powerful data mining methodology - archetype analysis - we identify characteristic spatial patterns consisting of…
The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to…
Several large scale circulation patterns have been identified in relation to extreme Northern Hemisphere summer heatwaves. Three main ones are a double jet over Eurasia, a positive phase of the summer northern annular mode, and a…
A transition to renewable energy is needed to mitigate climate change. In Europe, this transition has been led by wind energy, which is one of the fastest growing energy sources. However, energy demand and production are sensitive to…
One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…
A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived…
In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
Europe was hit by several, disastrous heat and drought events in recent summers. Besides thermodynamic influences, such hot and dry extremes are driven by certain atmospheric situations including anticyclonic conditions. Effects of climate…
We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…
We analyse extreme daily minimum temperatures in winter months over the island of Ireland from 1950-2022. We model the marginal distributions of extreme winter minima using a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD), capturing temporal and…
The teleconnection between European climate and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains difficult to isolate in observations because of internal variability and anthropogenically-forced signals. Using model sensitivity experiments…
Planetary and synoptic scale wave-packets represent one important component of the atmospheric large-scale circulation. These dissipative structures are able to rapidly transport eddy kinetic energy, generated locally (e.g. by baroclinic…
The increasing frequency of extreme temperature events, such as daily maximum temperature ($T_x$) records, underscores the need for robust tools to understand their drivers and predict their occurrence. Previous studies have identified…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
The relatively warm climate found in the North- Western Europe is due to the gulf stream that circulates warm saline water from southern latitudes to Europe. In North Atlantic ocean the stream gives out a large amount of heat, cools down…
We report on a set of laboratory experiments to investigate the effect of Arctic warming on the amplitude and drift speed of the mid-latitude jet stream. Our results show that a progressive decrease of the meridional temperature difference…
The boreal summer tropical upper-tropospheric momentum budget involves a balance between eddy and mean meridional fluxes. In winter, however, the eddy flux itself acts to accelerate and decelerate the zonal flow in the Asian and East…
Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…