Related papers: (Un)predictability of strong El Ni\~no events
This study examines the evolution of extreme Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and their impacts on South America during the austral summer. Furthermore, the study explores how the different ENSO phases modulate extreme MJO events, and…
Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…
The coupled atmosphere-ocean variability of the Indo-Pacific on interannual to multidecadal timescales is investigated in a millennial control run of CCSM4 and in observations using a family of modes recovered in Part~I of this work from…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…
Forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been a subject of vigorous research due to the important role of the phenomenon in climate dynamics and its worldwide socioeconomic impacts. Over the past decades, numerous models for…
In a statistical analysis of more than a century of data we find a strong connection between strong warm El Nino winter events and high spring precipitation in a band from Southern England eastwards into Asia. This relationship is an…
Oceanic atmospheric oscillations and climate variability are tightly linked and both exhibit broad band spectral content that ranges, with roughly equal strength, from annual to centennial periodicity. The explanation for variability based…
The diversity of El Ni\~no events is commonly described by two distinct flavors, the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types. While the remote impacts, i.e. teleconnections, of EP and CP events have been studied for different…
Extreme event are sudden large-amplitude changes in the state or observables of chaotic nonlinear systems, which characterize many scientific phenomena. Because of their violent nature, extreme events typically have adverse consequences,…
Universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of the strong fluctuations in such complex natural dynamical systems as global climate and global solar activity is discussed using wavelet regression…
The identification of precursors of climatic phenomena has enormous practical importance. Recent work constructs a climate network based on surface air temperature data to analyze the El Ni\~no phenomena. We utilize microtransitions which…
El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the significant climate phenomena, which appears periodically in the tropic Pacific. The intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model is the first and classical one designed…
A signature of El Nino-Southern Oscillation is found in the historical dataset of the Alaskan Tanana river breakups where the average ice breaking day is found to anticipate of about 3.4 days when conditioned over El Nino years. This…
Observations of planets throughout our Solar System have revealed that the Earth is not alone in possessing natural, inter-annual atmospheric cycles. The equatorial middle atmospheres of the Earth, Jupiter and Saturn all exhibit a…
Recent $daily$ data of the Southern Oscillation Index have been analyzed. The power spectrum indicates major intrinsic geophysical short periods. We find interesting ``high frequency'' oscillations at 24, 27, 37, 76, 100 and 365 days. In…
Rainy years and dry years in SE Australia are known to be correlated with sea surface temperatures in the specific areas of the Indian Ocean. While over the past 100 years the correlation had been both positive and negative, it…
Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects…
Sonification -- the mapping of data to non-speech audio -- offers an underexplored channel for representing complex dynamical systems. We treat El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a canonical example of low-dimensional climate chaos,…
In recent years, the application of machine learning approaches to time-series forecasting of climate dynamical phenomena has become increasingly active. It is known that applying a band-pass filter to a time-series data is a key to…