Related papers: (Un)predictability of strong El Ni\~no events
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…
During the last ice age several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events took place. Known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature anomalies.…
The Ghil-Zaliapin-Thompson (GZT) model, a scalar delay differential equation with periodic forcing and time-delayed feedback, captures key features of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Numerical studies of the GZT model…
The ocean heat content variability in the South China Sea (SCS) plays a pivotal role in regional climate and extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones. Using high-resolution ocean reanalysis data, we show that the SCS exhibits a…
Dominant modes of SST in the west and east Pacific show strong but regionally different gradients caused by waves, internal dynamics, and anthropogenic warming, which drives air-sea interaction in the Pacific. The study discusses the…
Severe thunderstorms can have devastating impacts. Concurrently high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are known to be conducive to severe weather, so high values of…
Oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves play an important role in tropical climate and \en dynamics. Here we develop and apply a climate network approach to quantify the characteristics of \en related oceanic waves, based on sea surface height…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
Northern Chile is one of the most arid regions in the world, with precipitation mainly occurring during austral summer, between December and April 1966-2015. The aim of this study is to classify the main weather regimes derived from sea…
The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the…
In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…
The spatiotemporal variation in tropical air-sea interaction is investigated by applying a simple model that considers the fundamental dynamics in tropical oceans. The model decomposes sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variation into a…
We develop Bayesian state space methods for modelling changes to the mean level or temporal correlation structure of an observed time series due to intermittent coupling with an unobserved process. Novel intervention methods are proposed to…
Understanding how fast atmospheric variability shapes slow climate variability and sensitivity remains a central challenge in Earth-system science. Recent advances in machine-learned (ML) atmospheric models have demonstrated remarkable…
We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long model trajectory, we show that blockings are associated with…
This article deals with the investigation of the influence of topography and coastlines on the dynamics of the depth averaged Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), driven by wind and atmospheric pressure. This is achieved with the help of a…
The response of a low-frequency mode of climate variability, El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation, to stochastic forcing is studied in a high-dimensional model of intermediate complexity, the fully-coupled Cane-Zebiak model [ZC87], from the…
We examine how coupling functions in the theory of dynamical systems provide a quantitative window into climate dynamics. Previously we have shown that a one-dimensional periodic non-autonomous stochastic dynamical system can simulate the…
Extinction coefficients and sensitivity values in the JHKL band-passes measured on nearly 200 nights of observing between 1978 and 1992 on the 1.5-meter and the Blanco 4- meter telescopes at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory are…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…