Related papers: (Un)predictability of strong El Ni\~no events

We study the forced response of the teleconnection between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global precipitation in general and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in particular in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. The forced…

Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…

The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated…

The major challenge we face today in the energy sector is to meet the growing demand for electricity with less impact on the environment. South America is an important player in the renewable energy resource. Brazil accelerated the growth…

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…

The global atmospheric temperature anomalies of Earth reached a maximum in 1998 which has not been exceeded during the subsequent 10 years. The global anomalies are calculated from the average of climate effects occurring in the tropical…

We show that the climate phenomena of El Nino and La Nina arise naturally as states of macro-variables when our recent causal feature learning framework (Chalupka 2015, Chalupka 2016) is applied to micro-level measures of zonal wind (ZW)…

This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed…

The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change…

Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources…

Considering the interdependencies between water and electricity use is critical for ensuring conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. This water-electricity demand nexus will become even…

Global weather patterns and regimes are heavily influenced by the dominant modes of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV), North…

Arnold's standard circle maps are widely used to study the quasi-periodic route to chaos and other phenomena associated with nonlinear dynamics in the presence of two rationally unrelated periodicities. In particular, the El Nino-Southern…

Despite advances in climate modeling, simulating the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains challenging due to its spatiotemporal diversity and complexity. To address this, we build upon existing model hierarchies to develop a new…

We propose Echo State Networks (ESNs) to predict the statistics of extreme events in a turbulent flow. We train the ESNs on small datasets that lack information about the extreme events. We asses whether the networks are able to extrapolate…

The shape and tails of partial distribution functions (PDF) for a climatological signal, i.e. the El Nino SOI and the turbulent nature of the ocean-atmosphere variability are linked through a model encompassing Tsallis nonextensive…

Conceptual delay models have played a key role in the understanding of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Based on such delay models, we propose a novel scenario for the fabric of ENSO variability resulting from the subtle…

Drought is a costly natural hazard, many aspects of which remain poorly understood. It has many contributory factors, driving its outset, duration, and severity, including land surface, anthropogenic activities, and, most importantly,…

The importance of the sea ice retreat in the polar regions for the global warming and the role of ice-albedo feedback was recognized by various authors [1,2]. Similar to a recent study of the phenomenon in the Arctic [3] we present a…

This study presents a basin wide assessment about the spatio-temporal variability of streamflows in Ecuador for the period 1979-2015. The influence of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) on stremaflow variariability from…