Related papers: (Un)predictability of strong El Ni\~no events
It is shown that, the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations of the monthly global temperature data (land and ocean combined) for the period 1880-2009yy, are completely dominated by one-third subharmonic resonance to annual forcing (both…
We develop a theory of three-dimensional slow Rossby waves in rotating spherical density stratified convection. The Rossby waves with frequencies which are much smaller than the rotating frequency, are excited by a non-axisymmetric…
The high growth rate of atmospheric CO2 in 2023 was found to be caused by a severe reduction of the global net land carbon sink. Here we update the global CO2 budget from January 1st to July 1st 2024, during which El Ni\~no drought…
During the last ice age there were several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events. The climatic effects of the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest and most abrupt…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…
Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…
Long-lead forecasting for spatio-temporal systems can often entail complex nonlinear dynamics that are difficult to specify it a priori. Current statistical methodologies for modeling these processes are often highly parameterized and thus,…
This study introduces the second version of the Integrated Climate Model (ICM). ICM is developed by the Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics to improve the short-term climate prediction of the East…
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial winds on Earth is the clearest example of the spontaneous emergence of a periodic phenomenon in geophysical fluids. In recent years, observations have revealed intriguing disruptions of…
Spatio-temporal data and processes are prevalent across a wide variety of scientific disciplines. These processes are often characterized by nonlinear time dynamics that include interactions across multiple scales of spatial and temporal…
The ISMR profoundly impacts over a billion people across the region. ISMR extremes have been linked to the ENSO and modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). ISMR of 2022 displayed intriguing spatial patterns: above-normal precipitation…
This study investigates temporal variability in U.S. climate using harmonic decomposition techniques, specifically Fourier and wavelet transforms. Monthly temperature, precipitation, and drought index data from the National Oceanic and…
This research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water…
Many phenomena in the climate system lie in the gray zone between weather and climate: they are not amenable to deterministic forecast, but they still depend on the initial condition. A natural example is medium-range forecasting, which is…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record…
The fact that the Earth climate is a highly complex dynamical system is well-known. In the last few decades a lot of effort has been focused on understanding how climate phenomena in one geographical region affects the climate of other…
Some initial investigations into various atmospheric phenomena and the influence of the solar cycle on weather have been made. Strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, which cause cold and dry winter weather in North West…
Using a three-dimensional general circulation model, we show that the atmospheric dynamics on a tidally locked Earth-like exoplanet, simulated with the planetary and orbital parameters of Proxima Centauri b, support a longitudinally…
Using simulations with a whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model nudged by meteorological analyses, global satellite observations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and water vapour by the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer instrument (SMR), of temperature by…