Related papers: (Un)predictability of strong El Ni\~no events
In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…
The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method…
The predictability of climate anomalies in the regions of Northern Eurasia in connection with El Nino phenomena is analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the most likely transition in 2024 from an El Nino phase at the beginning of the…
Internal modes of climate variability, such as El Ni\~no and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can have strong influences upon distant weather patterns, effects that are referred to as "teleconnections". The extent to which anthropogenic…
We introduce an interpretable-by-design method, optimized model-analog, that integrates deep learning with model-analog forecasting which generates forecasts from similar initial climate states in a repository of model simulations. This…
The integration of renewable energy sources into power systems is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades. This can result in critical situations related to the strong variability in space and time of weather patterns.…
The solar activity provides an important impact not only on the intensity of cosmic rays but also on the earth environment. In this paper, a coupled oscillator model is proposed to explain the solar activity. By this model the 89 year…
Most of the existing prediction methods gave a false alarm regarding the El Ni\~no event in 2014. A crucial aspect is currently limiting the success of such predictions, i.e. the stability of the slowly varying Pacific climate. This…
Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series in various scientific disciplines. In this work, we apply the recently proposed climate network…
Recent studies have shown that deep learning (DL) models can skillfully predict the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts over 1.5 years ahead. However, concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist,…
We apply a test for low-dimensional, deterministic dynamics to the Nino 3 time series for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The test is negative, indicating that the dynamics is high-dimensional/stochastic. However, application of…
The southern oscillation index (SOI) is a characteristic of the El Nino phenomenon. SOI monthly averaged data is analyzed for the time interval 1866-2000. The tail of the cumulative distribution of the fluctuations of SOI signal is studied…
The skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts is assessed worldwide -grid point by grid point- for the forty-years period 1961-2000. To this aim, the ENSEMBLES multi-model hindcast is considered. Although predictability varies with region,…
Studying the response of a climate system to perturbations has practical significance. Standard methods in computing the trajectory-wise deviation caused by perturbations may suffer from the chaotic nature that makes the model error…
Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale.…
The relation between El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) perplexes the researchers. Probably, this is due to the default choice on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method whose outputs are merely…
Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep…
Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR…
We construct and analyze a climate network which represents the interdependent structure of the climate in different geographical zones and find that the network responds in a unique way to El-Ni\~{n}o events. Analyzing the dynamics of the…
Understanding current global climate requires an understanding of trends both in Earth's atmospheric temperature and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a characteristic large-scale distribution of warm water in the tropical Pacific…