Related papers: (Un)predictability of strong El Ni\~no events
While deep-learning models have demonstrated skillful El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts up to one year in advance, they are predominantly trained on climate model simulations that provide thousands of years of training data at…
We study the relationship between the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon in ensemble simulations from state-of-the-art climate models, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community…
The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…
El Nino is probably the most influential climate phenomenon on interannual time scales. It affects the global climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious consequences in many aspects of human life. However, the…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two dominant modes of tropical climate variability, each with profound global weather impacts. While their individual dynamics have been widely studied,…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that global climate dynamics at time-scales between multiple weeks and several years can be severely affected by the episodic occurrence of both, internal (climatic) and external (non-climatic)…
The Atacama desert stands as the most arid, non-polar, region on Earth and has accommodated a considerable portion of the world's ground-based astronomical observatories for an extended period. The comprehension of factors important for…
Frequency of warm and cold winters in the North Eurasian regions is analyzed from long-term data, depending on El Nino phenomena of different types. Frequencies of extremely warm and extremely cold winters for North Eurasian regions in…
The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…
This article analyzes SST remote forcing on the interannual variability of Sahel summer (June-September) moderate (below 75th percentile) and heavy (above 75th percentile) daily precipitation events during the period 1981-2016. Evidence is…
Several recent studies have linked the exceptional North Atlantic and Eurasian atmospheric evolution during late February and March 2018 to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) that took place a few weeks earlier. February 2018 was…
Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) have long been known to have a major impact on the development of El Ni\~no events. In particular, they amplify these events, with stronger events associated with a higher number of WWBs. We further find…
The El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) behavior can be effectively modeled as a response to a 2nd-order Mathieu/Hill differential equation with periodic coefficients describing sloshing of a volume of water. The forcing of the equation…
This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…
Extreme rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon can be destructive and deadly. Although El Ni\~no/ events in the equatorial Pacific make dry days and whole summers more likely throughout India, their influence on daily extremes is not well…
An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…
We investigate a low-dimensional slow-fast model to understand the dynamical origin of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation. A close inspection of the system dynamics using several bifurcation plots reveals that a sudden large expansion of the…
The temperatures in different zones in the world do not show significant changes due to El-Nino except when measured in a restricted area in the Pacific Ocean. We find, in contrast, that the dynamics of a climate network based on the same…
The 2014-2015 "Monster"/"Super" El Ni\~no failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Ni\~no, El Ni\~no Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this…
We show that the monthly recorded history (1878-2013) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be well described as a dynamic system that supports an average…