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Multiple epidemiological models have been proposed to predict the spread of Ebola in West Africa. These models include consideration of counter-measures meant to slow and, eventually, stop the spread of the disease. Here, we examine one…
Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of…
The Ebola virus disease is a severe viral haemorrhagic fever syndrome caused by Ebola virus. This disease is transmitted by direct contact with the body fluids of an infected person and objects contaminated with virus or infected animals,…
A model of an Ebola epidemic is developed with infected individuals structured according to disease age. The transmission of the infection is tracked by disease age through an initial incubation (exposed) phase, followed by an infectious…
The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission…
A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission. We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak…
Ebola virus disease is a severe hemorrhagic fever with rapid transmission through infected fluids and surfaces. We develop a fractional-order model using Caputo derivatives to capture memory effects in disease dynamics. An eight-compartment…
We present a comparison between two different mathematical models used in the description of the Ebola virus propagation currently occurring in West Africa. In order to improve the prediction and the control of the propagation of the virus,…
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented…
The most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we…
Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…
Containing the recent West African outbreak of Ebola virus (EBOV) required the deployment of substantial global resources. Operationally, health workers and surveillance teams treated cases, collected genetic samples, and tracked case…
In early 2014 an outbreak of a slightly mutated Zaire Ebola subtype appeared in West Africa which is less virulent than 1976 and 1994 strains. The numbers of cases per year appear to be ~ 1000 times larger than the earlier strains,…
Background: While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics…
West Africa is currently experiencing a severe outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD). As part of the international effort to address this outbreak, the United States has committed to building specialized Ebola treatment facilities with 1700…
The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) can persist in some body fluids after clinical recovery. In Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, there are well-documented cases of EVD reemergence that were associated with previous outbreaks. In…
Connecting the different scales of epidemic dynamics, from individuals to communities to nations, remains one of the main challenges of disease modeling. Here, we revisit one of the largest public health efforts deployed against a localized…
2014 Ebola outbreaks can offer lessons for the COVOID-19 and the ongoing variant surveillance and the use of multi method approach to detect public health preparedness. We are increasingly seeing a delay and disconnect of the transmission…
Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a theoretical perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact…
In severe outbreaks such as Ebola, bird flu and SARS, people share news, and their thoughts and responses regarding the outbreaks on social media. Understanding how people perceive the severe outbreaks, what their responses are, and what…