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Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…
A method for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission is developed for a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
We explore the use of the optimal statistical interpolation (OSI) data assimilation method for the statistical tracking of emerging epidemics and to study the spatial dynamics of a disease. The epidemic models that we used for this study…
The daily fluctuations in the released number of Covid-19 cases played a big role both at the beginning and in the most critical weeks of the outbreak, when local authorities in Italy had to decide whether to impose a lockdown and at which…
Agent-based models (ABMs) have emerged as distinguished tools for epidemic modeling due to their ability to capture detailed human contact patterns and can, thus, support decision-makers in times of outbreaks and epidemics. However, as a…
This work describes a simple agent model for the spread of an epidemic outburst, with special emphasis on mobility and geographical considerations, which we characterize via statistical mechanics and numerical simulations. As the mobility…
A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus has spread worldwide, affecting Argentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in Buenos Aires and neighbouring cities. The model parameters are calibrated using the number of…
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…
The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…
In this work, we study the finite-population behaviour of the Reed-Frost epidemic model. Our analysis relies on the exact expression for the final epidemic size, replaced by Monte Carlo simulations in cases where the exact formula becomes…
Spatially explicit models have been widely used in today's mathematical ecology and epidemiology to study persistence and extinction of populations as well as their spatial patterns. Here we extend the earlier work--static dispersal between…
Passenger contact in public transit (PT) networks can be a key mediate in the spreading of infectious diseases. This paper proposes a time-varying weighted PT encounter network to model the spreading of infectious diseases through the PT…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
The latest WHO report showed that the number of malaria cases climbed to 219 million last year, two million higher than last year. The global efforts to fight malaria have hit a plateau and the most significant underlying reason is…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
During the last decades, the global prevalence of dengue progressed dramatically. It is a disease that is now endemic in more than one hundred countries of Africa, America, Asia, and the Western Pacific. In this paper, we present a…
Prediction of the progression of an infectious disease outbreak is important for planning and coordinating a response. Differential equations are often used to model an epidemic outbreak's behaviour but are challenging to parameterise.…