English

Mathematical Analysis and Modeling of Ebola Virus Dynamics via Optimal Control and Neural Network Paradigms

Optimization and Control 2025-12-22 v3

Abstract

Ebola virus disease is a severe hemorrhagic fever with rapid transmission through infected fluids and surfaces. We develop a fractional-order model using Caputo derivatives to capture memory effects in disease dynamics. An eight-compartment structure distinguishes symptomatic, asymptomatic, and post-mortem transmission pathways. We prove global well-posedness, derive the basic reproduction number R0\mathcal{R}_0, and establish stability theorems. Sensitivity analysis shows R0\mathcal{R}_0 is most sensitive to transmission rate, incubation period, and deceased infectivity. Treatment-safe burial synergy achieves 86.5\% morbidity-mortality control, with safe burial being most effective. Our disease-informed neural network achieves near-perfect predictive accuracy (R2R^2: 0.991-0.999, 99.1-99.9\% accuracy), closely matching real epidemic behavior.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2511.06303,
  title  = {Mathematical Analysis and Modeling of Ebola Virus Dynamics via Optimal Control and Neural Network Paradigms},
  author = {Noor Muhammad and Md. Nur Alam and Zhang Shiqing},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.06303},
  year   = {2025}
}