Related papers: Estimation of multiple change points under a gener…
We study the problem of detecting a common change point in large panel data based on a mean shift model, wherein the errors exhibit both temporal and cross-sectional dependence. A least squares based procedure is used to estimate the…
We analyze the problem of the analytical characterization of the probability distribution of financial returns in the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with stochastic volatility. In this model the prices are driven by a Geometric…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…
We use asymptotic methods from the theory of differential equations to obtain an analytical expression for the survival probability of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a potential defined over a broad domain. We form a uniformly…
In this paper, we consider the problem of (multiple) change-point detection in panel data. We propose the double CUSUM statistic which utilises the cross-sectional change-point structure by examining the cumulative sums of ordered CUSUMs at…
Spatio-temporal modelling is an increasingly popular topic in Statistics. Our paper contributes to this line of research by developing the theory, simulation and inference for a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We conduct…
Measurement on sets with a specific geometric shape can be of interest for many important applications (e.g. measurement along the isotherms in structural engineering). In the present paper the properties of optimal designs for estimating…
Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…
The extensive emergence of big data techniques has led to an increasing interest in the development of change-point detection algorithms that can perform well in a multivariate, possibly high-dimensional setting. In the current paper, we…
We consider the problem of estimating the location of a single change point in a dynamic stochastic block model. We propose two methods of estimating the change point, together with the model parameters. The first employs a least squares…
This article considers change point testing and estimation for a sequence of high-dimensional data. In the case of testing for a mean shift for high-dimensional independent data, we propose a new test which is based on $U$-statistic in Chen…
In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices is modeled with a normal tempered stable driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Such processes are the generalization of normal inverse Gaussian…
Interactions among people or objects are often dynamic in nature and can be represented as a sequence of networks, each providing a snapshot of the interactions over a brief period of time. An important task in analyzing such evolving…
Statistical testing is classically used as an exploratory tool to search for association between a phenotype and many possible explanatory variables. This approach often leads to multiple testing under dependence. We assume a hierarchical…
We introduce the two-factor Quintic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) model, where volatility is modelled as a degree-five polynomial of the sum of two Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by the same Brownian motion, each mean-reverting at a…
We are interested in the law of the first passage time of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to time-varying thresholds. We show that this problem is connected to the laws of the first passage time of the process to members of a two-parameter…
Statistical early warning signs can be used to identify an approaching bifurcation in stochastic dynamical systems and are now regularly employed in applications concerned with the identification of potential rapid, non-linear change or…
Market regimes is a popular topic in quantitative finance even though there is little consensus on the details of how they should be defined. They arise as a feature both in financial market prediction problems and financial market task…
We present a theoretical framework that enables investigating rare transitions in a general model of an active particle in an external potential, with the thermal Active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Particle (AOUP) appearing as a special case. Using…
We consider the inverse problem of determining initial data in general Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equations on the Euclidean space from partial measurement localized on the so-called thick sets. Using the logarithmic convexity technique and recent…