Related papers: Predictability of Critical Transitions
One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…
We examine the noise-induced transition in a fluctuating bistable potential of a driven quantum system in thermal equilibrium. Making use of a Wigner canonical thermal distribution for description of the statistical properties of the…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
For the dynamic pitchfork bifurcation in the presence of white noise, the statistics of the last time at zero are calculated as a function of the noise level and the rate of change of the parameter. The threshold crossing problem used, for…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
The effect of stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with two distinct time-scales is presented. A supercritical singular Hopf bifurcation yields a Type II excitability in the deterministic model. We…
In this paper we study nonlinear $q$-voter model with stochastic driving on a complete graph. We investigate two types of stochasticity that, using the language of social sciences, can be interpreted as different kinds of nonconformity.…
Bistability generated via a pure noise-induced phase transition is reexamined from the view of bifurcations in macroscopic cumulant dynamics. It allows an analytical study of the phase diagram in more general cases than previous methods. In…
The study of Planktonic Foraminifera abundances permits to obtain climatic curves on the basis of percentage ratio between tropical and temperate/polar forms. Climatic changes were controlled by several phenomena as: (i) Milankovitch's…
The nonequilibrium dynamic phase transition, in the kinetic Ising model in presence of an oscillating magnetic field, has been studied by Monte Carlo simulation. The fluctuation of dynamic order parameter has been studied as a function of…
The unpredictability in chaotic scattering problems is a fundamental topic in physics that has been studied either in purely conservative systems or in the presence of weak perturbations. In many systems noise plays an important role in the…
Noise, through its interaction with the nonlinearity of the living systems, can give rise to counter-intuitive phenomena such as stochastic resonance, noise-delayed extinction, temporal oscillations, and spatial patterns. In this paper we…
We investigate the hopping dynamics between different attractors in a multistable system under the influence of noise. Using symbolic dynamics we find a sudden increase of dynamical entropies, when a system parameter is varied. This effect…
A function with finite asymptotic limits gives rise to a transition equation between a "past system" and a "future system". This question is analyzed in the case of nonautonomous coercive nonlinear scalar ordinary differential equations…
In a common experimental setting, the behaviour of a noisy dynamical system is monitored in response to manipulations of one or more control parameters. Here, we introduce a structured model to describe parametric changes in qualitative…
We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear. randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks, prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control.…
Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…
Complex dynamical systems may exhibit multiple steady states, including time-periodic limit cycles, where the final trajectory depends on initial conditions. With tuning of parameters, limit cycles can proliferate or merge at an exceptional…
Critical phenomena in globally coupled excitable elements are studied by focusing on a saddle-node bifurcation at the collective level. Critical exponents that characterize divergent fluctuations of interspike intervals near the bifurcation…
Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct the pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models…