Related papers: Predictability of Critical Transitions
Whereas the importance of transient dynamics to the functionality and management of complex systems has been increasingly recognized, most of the studies are based on models. Yet in realistic situations the models are often unknown and what…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
We study fluctuating field models with spontaneously emerging dynamical phases. We consider two typical transition scenarios associated with parity-time symmetry breaking: oscillatory instabilities and critical exceptional points. An…
In contemporary educational systems, academic performance indicators play a central role in institutional evaluation and in the interpretation of student trajectories. However, under conditions of rapid technological change, the inferential…
A recently introduced lattice model, describing an extended system which exhibits a reentrant (symmetry-breaking, second-order) noise-induced nonequilibrium phase transition, is studied under the assumption that the multiplicative noise…
We consider a coupled bistable N-particle system driven by a Brownian noise, with a strong coupling corresponding to the synchronised regime. Our aim is to obtain sharp estimates on the metastable transition times between the two stable…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
Chemical, physical and ecological systems passing through a saddle-node bifurcation will, momentarily, find themselves balanced at a semi-stable steady state. If perturbed by noise, such systems will escape from the zero-steady state, with…
We investigate the effects of exponentially correlated noise on birhythmic van der Pol type oscillators. The analytical results are obtained applying the quasi-harmonic assumption to the Langevin equation to derive an approximated…
Critical transitions, ubiquitous in nature and technology, necessitate anticipation to avert adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, where a control parameter change leads to destabilization, alternative…
The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…
We investigate the effect of self-propulsion on a mean-field order-disorder transition. Starting from a $\varphi^4$ scalar field theory subject to an exponentially correlated noise, we exploit the Unified Colored Noise Approximation to map…
Depinning transitions occur when a threshold force must be applied to drive an otherwise immobile system. For the depinning of colloidal particles from a corrugated landscape, we show how active noise due to self-propulsion impacts the…
We investigate the bifurcation phenomena for stochastic systems with multiplicative Gaussian noise, by examining qualitative changes in mean phase portraits. Starting from the Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density function of…
Parametric oscillators are examples of externally driven systems that can exhibit two stable states with opposite phase depending on the initial conditions. In this work, we propose to study what happens when the external forcing is…
We propose a model of multispecies populations surviving on distributed resources. System dynamics are investigated under changes in abiotic factors such as the climate, as parameterized through environmental temperature. In particular, we…
The extinction of species is a core process that affects the diversity of life on Earth. One way of investigating the causes and consequences of extinctions is to build conceptual ecological models, and to use the dynamical outcomes of such…
Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental…
We address a mean-field zero-temperature Ginzburg-Landau, or \phi^4, model subjected to quenched additive noise, which has been used recently as a framework for analyzing collective effects induced by diversity. We first make use of a…
In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…