Related papers: Predictability of Critical Transitions
In stochastic multistable systems driven by the gradient of a potential, transitions between equilibria is possible because of noise. We study the ability of linear delay feedback control to mitigate these transitions, ensuring that the…
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be…
From the formation of ice in small clusters of water molecules to the mass raids of army ant colonies, the emergent behavior of collectives depends critically on their size. At the same time, common wisdom holds that such behaviors are…
We review in details some recently proposed kinetic models of opinion dynamics. We discuss the several variants including a generalised model. We provide mean field estimates for the critical points, which are numerically supported with…
In this work we study the majority-vote model with the presence of two distinc noises. The first one is the usual noise $q$, that represents the probability that a given agent follows the minority opinion of his/her social contacts. On the…
Many dynamical systems exhibit abrupt transitions or tipping as the control parameter is varied. In scenarios where the parameter is varied continuously, the rate of change of control parameter greatly affects the performance of early…
Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very…
Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…
In a physical system, changing parameters such as temperature can induce a phase transition: an abrupt change from one state of matter to another. Analogous phenomena have recently been observed in large language models. Typically, the task…
Warning signs for tipping points (or critical transitions) have been very actively studied. Although the theory has been applied successfully in models and in experiments for many complex systems such as for tipping in climate systems,…
We consider the stochastic patterns of a system of communicating, or coupled, self-propelled particles in the presence of noise and communication time delay. For sufficiently large environmental noise, there exists a transition between a…
Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid…
A critical transition for a system modelled by a concave quadratic scalar ordinary differential equation occurs when a small variation of the coefficients changes dramatically the dynamics, from the existence of an attractor-repeller pair…
A probabilistic model describes a system in its observational state. In many situations, however, we are interested in the system's response under interventions. The class of structural causal models provides a language that allows us to…
Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…
An Ising spin system under the critical temperature driven by a dichotomous Markov noise (magnetic field) with a finite correlation time is studied both numerically and theoretically. The order parameter exhibits a transition between two…
Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on…
This Thesis explores how tools from Statistical Physics and Information Theory can help us describe and understand complex systems. In the first part, we study the interplay between internal interactions, environmental changes, and…
The dynamics of an ensemble of bistable elements with global time-delayed coupling under the influence of noise is studied analytically and numerically. Depending on the noise level the system undergoes ordering transitions and demonstrates…
A broad range of natural and social systems from human microbiome to financial markets can go through critical transitions, where the system suddenly collapses to another stable configuration. Critical transitions can be unexpected, with…