Related papers: Predictability of Critical Transitions
Determining critical points of phase transitions from partial data is essential to avoid abrupt system collapses and reducing experimental or computational costs. However, the complex physical systems and phase transition phenomena have…
The destruction of a chaotic attractor leading to rough changes in the dynamics of a dynamical system is studied. Local bifurcations are characterised by a single or a pair of characteristic exponents crossing the imaginary axis. The…
Critical transitions are of great interest to scientists in many fields. Most knowledge about these transitions comes from systems exhibiting the multistability of spatially uniform states. In spatially extended and, particularly, in…
We comment on some recent, yet unpublished results concerning instabilities in complex systems and their applications. In particular, we briefly describe main observations during extensive computer simulations of two lattice nonequilibrium…
We propose predictive information, that is information between a long past of duration T and the entire infinitely long future of a time series, as a universal order parameter to study phase transitions in physical systems. It can be used,…
Many ecosystems can undergo important qualitative changes, including sudden transitions to alternative stable states, in response to perturbations or increments in conditions. Such 'tipping points' are often preceded by declines in aspects…
We study the effects of noise cross-correlations on the steady states of driven, nonequilibrium systems, which are described by two stochastically driven dynamical variables, in one dimension. We use a well-known stochastically driven…
Tipping behavior can occur when an equilibrium of a dynamical system loses stability in response to a slowly varying parameter crossing a bifurcation threshold, or where noise drives a system from one attractor to another, or some…
We consider the noise-induced transitions in the randomly perturbed discrete logistic map from a linearly stable periodic orbit consisting of T periodic points. The traditional large deviation theory and asymptotic analysis for small noise…
The use of available disturbance predictions within a nominal model predictive control formulation is studied. The main challenge that arises is the loss of recursive feasibility and stability guarantees when a persistent disturbance is…
In this work we study the critical behavior of a three-state opinion model in the presence of noise. This noise represents the independent behavior, that plays the role of social temperature. Each agent on a regular D-dimensional lattice…
Fluctuations and noise may alter the behavior of dynamical systems considerably. For example, oscillations may be sustained by demographic fluctuations in biological systems where a stable fixed point is found in the absence of noise. We…
This paper presents an analysis of the effects of noise and precision on a simplified model of the clarinet driven by a variable control parameter. When the control parameter is varied the clarinet model undergoes a dynamic bifurcation. A…
The use of critical slowing down as an early warning indicator for regime switching in observations from stochastic environments and noisy dynamical models has been widely studied and implemented in recent years. Some systems, however, have…
An important characteristic of flocks of birds, school of fish, and many similar assemblies of self-propelled particles is the emergence of states of collective order in which the particles move in the same direction. When noise is added…
We revisit here the problem of the collective non-equilibrium dynamics of a classical statistical system at a critical point and in the presence of surfaces. The effects of breaking separately space- and time-translational invariance are…
Strong positive feedback is considered a necessary condition to observe abrupt shifts of ecosystems. A few previous studies have shown that demographic noise -- arising from the probabilistic and discrete nature of birth and death processes…
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…
Noise is usually regarded as adversarial to extract the effective dynamics from time series, such that the conventional data-driven approaches usually aim at learning the dynamics by mitigating the noisy effect. However, noise can have a…