Related papers: Predictability of Critical Transitions
Complex systems exhibiting critical transitions when one of their governing parameters varies are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering applications. Despite a vast literature focusing on this topic, there are few studies dealing with the…
Statistical early warning signs can be used to identify an approaching bifurcation in stochastic dynamical systems and are now regularly employed in applications concerned with the identification of potential rapid, non-linear change or…
The classical fold bifurcation is a paradigmatic example of a critical transition. It has been used in a variety of contexts, including in particular ecology and climate science, to motivate the role of slow recovery rates and increased…
Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…
Spatial diffusion of particles in periodic potential models has provided a good framework for studying the role of chaos in global properties of classical systems. Here a bidimensional "soft" billiard, classically modeled from an optical…
The paper gives a systematic analysis of singularities of transition processes in dynamical systems. General dynamical systems with dependence on parameter are studied. A system of relaxation times is constructed. Each relaxation time…
The microscopic model in which nodes interacting with each other are statistical systems is introduced. The nodes conditions are connected with a string of distinct microscopic configurations and depend on external parameters (pressure and…
Pulse stabilization of cycles with Prediction-Based Control including noise and stochastic stabilization of maps with multiple equilibrium points is analyzed for continuous but, generally, non-smooth maps. Sufficient conditions of global…
Predicting the future behaviour of complex systems exhibiting critical-like dynamics is often considered to be an intrinsically hard task. Here, we study the predictability of the depinning dynamics of elastic interfaces in random media…
We investigate the dependence of the score on noise in the data, and on the network size. As a result, we obtain the so-called "cognition transition" from good performance to zero with increasing noise. The understanding of this transition…
Early warning indicators often suffer from the shortness and coarse-graining of real-world time series. Furthermore, the typically strong and correlated noise contributions in real applications are severe drawbacks for statistical measures.…
A wide variety of complex systems exhibit large fluctuations both in space and time that often can be attributed to the presence of some kind of critical phenomena. Under such critical scenario it is well known that the properties of the…
Diverse complex dynamical systems are known to exhibit abrupt regime shifts at bifurcation points of the saddle-node type. The dynamics of most of these systems, however, have a stochastic component resulting in noise driven regime shifts…
To predict a critical transition due to parameter drift without relying on model is an outstanding problem in nonlinear dynamics and applied fields. A closely related problem is to predict whether the system is already in or if the system…
We consider driven many-particle models which have a phase transition between an active and an absorbing phase. Like previously studied models, we have particle conservation, but here we introduce an additional symmetry - when two particles…
This paper provides an overview of the research on the metastable behavior of the Ising model. We analyze the transition times from the set of metastable states to the set of the stable states by identifying the critical configurations that…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
Fluctuating hydrodynamics provides a model for fluids at mesoscopic scales where thermal fluctuations can have a significant impact on the behavior of the system. Here we investigate a model for fluctuating hydrodynamics of a single…
In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…
The emergence of periodic oscillations is observed in various complex systems in nature and engineering. Thermoacoustic oscillations in systems comprising turbulent reactive flow exemplify such complexity in the engineering context, where…