Related papers: Predictability of Critical Transitions
We investigate a forest-fire model with the density of empty sites as control parameter. The model exhibits three phases, separated by one first-order phase transition and one 'mixed' phase transition which shows critical behavior on only…
We identify a new universality class of phase transitions that arises in non-normal systems, challenging the classical view that transitions require eigenvalue instabilities. In traditional bifurcation theory, critical phenomena emerge when…
Noise and spatial degrees of freedom characterize most ecosystems. Some aspects of their influence on the coevolution of populations with cyclic interspecies competition have been demonstrated in recent experiments [e.g. B. Kerr et al.,…
Statistical systems near a classical critical point have been intensively studied both from theoretical and experimental points of view. In particular, correlation functions are of relevance in comparing theoretical models with the…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
We study a rational expectation model of bubbles and crashes. The model has two components : (1) our key assumption is that a crash may be caused by local self-reinforcing imitation between noise traders. If the tendency for noise traders…
We study a two-dimensional low-dissipation dynamical system with a control parameter that is swept linearly in time across a transcritical bifurcation. We investigate the relaxation time of a perturbation applied to a variable of the system…
Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…
The dynamics of a weakly dissipative Hamiltonian system submitted to stochastic perturbations has been investigated by means of asymptotic methods. The probability of noise-induced separatrix crossing, which drastically changes the fate of…
Theoretical models that describe oscillations in biological systems are often either a limit cycle oscillator, where the deterministic nonlinear dynamics gives sustained periodic oscillations, or a noise-induced oscillator, where a fixed…
A system defined by two coupled Ising models, with a bimodal random field acting in one of them, is investigated. The interactions among variables of each Ising system are infinite-ranged, a limit where mean field becomes exact. This model…
Abrupt transitions to the state of thermoacoustic instability (TAI) in gas turbine combustors are a significant challenge plaguing the development of next-generation low-emission aircraft and power generation engines. In this paper, we…
Understanding information transfer among individuals is fundamental to revealing collective dynamics of complex systems. Information transfers are quantified by information-theoretical measures and are often correlated with the concept of…
When modelling time series, it is common to decompose observed variation into a "signal" process, the process of interest, and "noise", representing nuisance factors that obfuscate the signal. To separate signal from noise, assumptions must…
Front dynamics modeled by a reaction-diffusion equation are studied under the influence of spatio-temporal structured noises. An effective deterministic model is analytical derived where the noise parameters, intensity, correlation time and…
In complex systems, external parameters often determine the phase in which the system operates, i.e., its macroscopic behavior. For nearly a century, statistical physics has extensively studied systems' transitions across phases,…
We consider the rates of noise-induced switching between the stable states of dissipative dynamical systems with delay and also the rates of noise-induced extinction, where such systems model population dynamics. We study a class of systems…
The emergence of collective oscillations and synchronization is a widespread phenomenon in complex systems. While widely studied in dynamical systems theory, this phenomenon is not well understood in the context of out-of-equilibrium phase…
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…
We present a phenomenological reduced-order model to capture the transition to thermoacoustic instability in turbulent combustors. The model is based on the framework of synchronization and considers the acoustic field and the unsteady heat…