Related papers: Large deviations for Markovian nonlinear Hawkes pr…
The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…
We prove a central limit type theorem for critical marked Hawkes processes. We study the case where the marks are i.i.d. with nonnegative values and their common distribution is either heavy tailed or has finite variance. The kernel…
We give a construction of the Hawkes process as a piecewise competing risks model. We argue that the most natural interpretation of the self-excitation kernel is the hazard function of a defective random variable. This establishes a link…
Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…
In this paper, we build a model for biological neural nets where the activity of the network is described by Hawkes processes having a variable length memory. The particularity of this paper is to deal with an infinite number of components.…
Hawkes processes are point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties that are popular in applications. In recent years, renewal Hawkes processes have gained attention, due to their versatility such as the capability of…
Hawkes (1971) introduced a powerful multivariate point process model of mutually exciting processes to explain causal structure in data. In this paper it is shown that the Granger causality structure of such processes is fully encoded in…
We prove exponential moments for linear combinations of the number of individuals of each type of a whole multitype Poissonian Galton Watson process. We give sharp estimates for such quantities, which depend on the expectation of the…
We consider a nonlinear multivariate Hawkes process having a variable length memory which allows to describe the activity of a neuronal network by its membrane potential. We propose a graphical construction of the process and we construct,…
The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…
An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood…
We introduce and test an algorithm that adaptively estimates large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes in the long-time limit. These functions play an important role for predicting…
In this paper, we address the problem of fitting multivariate Hawkes processes to potentially large-scale data in a setting where series of events are not only mutually-exciting but can also exhibit inhibitive patterns. We focus on…
The large deviations principle for the empirical measure for both continuous and discrete time Markov processes is well known. Various expressions are available for the rate function, but these expressions are usually as the solution to a…
We introduce, and formally establish, a variant of the Hawkes-fed birth-death process -- the delayed Hawkes birth-death process -- in which the conditional intensity does not increase at arrivals but at departures from the system. In a…
We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…
For Markov processes evolving on multiple time-scales a combination of large component scalings and averaging of rapid fluctuations can lead to useful limits for model approximation. A general approach to proving a law of large numbers to a…
The theory of stochastic approximations form the theoretical foundation for studying convergence properties of many popular recursive learning algorithms in statistics, machine learning and statistical physics. Large deviations for…
In this paper we propagate a large deviations approach for proving limit theory for (generally) multivariate time series with heavy tails. We make this notion precise by introducing regularly varying time series. We provide general large…
The present paper provides exact mathematical expressions for the high-order moments of spiking activity in a recurrently-connected network of linear Hawkes processes. It extends previous studies that have explored the case of a (linear)…