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We define a new model using a Hawkes process as a subordinator in a standard Brownian motion. We demonstrate that this Hawkes subordinated Brownian motion or more succinctly, variance-Hawkes process can be fit to 2018 and 2019 natural gas…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-14 Joshua McGillivray , Anatoliy Swishchuk

We give functional laws of large numbers for a class of marked Hawkes processes and marked compound Hawkes processes with a general mark space. Our results provide some complement to those presented previously in the literature. As an…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Mariusz iewȩgłowski , Anatoliy Swishchuk

We establish uniqueness for a class of first-order Hamilton-Jacobi equations with Hamiltonians that arise from the large deviations of the empirical measure and empirical flux pair of weakly interacting Markov jump processes. As a corollary…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-24 Richard C. Kraaij

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Hongteng Xu , Dixin Luo , Hongyuan Zha

In this paper we study the Poisson Hypothesis, which is a device to analyze approximately the behavior of large queueing networks. We prove it in some simple limiting cases. We show in particular that the corresponding dynamical system,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 A. Rybko , S. Shlosman

In this paper we consider point processes specified on directed linear networks, i.e. linear networks with associated directions. We adapt the so-called conditional intensity function used for specifying point processes on the time line to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 Jakob G. Rasmussen , Heidi S. Christensen

In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

The Airy point process is a determinantal point process that arises from the spectral edge of the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble. In this paper, we establish a large deviation principle for the Airy point process. Our result also extends to…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-10 Chenyang Zhong

We consider the stochastic volatility model obtained by adding a compound Hawkes process to the volatility of the well-known Heston model. A Hawkes process is a self-exciting counting process with many applications in mathematical finance,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-28 David R. Baños , Salvador Ortiz-Latorre , Oriol Zamora Font

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of networks of interacting non-linear Hawkes processes modeling a homogeneous population of neurons in the large population limit. In particular, we prove a functional central limit theorem for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-06 Sophie Heesen , Wilhelm Stannat

A field theoretical framework is developed for the Hawkes self-excited point process with arbitrary memory kernels by embedding the original non-Markovian one-dimensional dynamics onto a Markovian infinite-dimensional one. The corresponding…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

This paper considers population processes in which general, not necessarily Markovian, multivariate Hawkes processes dictate the stochastic arrivals. We establish results to determine the corresponding time-dependent joint probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-08 Raviar Karim , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel Mandjes

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-12 Achraf Bahamou , Maud Doumergue , Philippe Donnat

We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Teppei Ogihara , Nakahiro Yoshida

The superposition of temporal point processes has been studied for many years, although the usefulness of such models for practical applications has not be fully developed. We investigate superposed Hawkes process as an important class of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Hongteng Xu , Dixin Luo , Xu Chen , Lawrence Carin

Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Songyao Jin , Biwei Huang

We consider a sequence of Hawkes processes whose excitation measures may depend on the generation, and study its scaling limits in the near-unstable limiting regime. The limiting random measures, characterized via a nonlinear convolutional…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Tristan Pace , Gordan Zitkovic

Hawkes process (HP) is a point process with a conditionally dependent intensity function. This paper defines the tempered fractional Hawkes process (TFHP) by time-changing the HP with an inverse tempered stable subordinator. We obtained…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-17 Neha Gupta , Aditya Maheshwari

We establish a process level large deviation principle for systems of interacting Bessel-like diffusion processes. By establishing weak uniqueness for the limiting non-local SDE of McKean-Vlasov type, we conclude that the latter describes…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-14 Tomoyuki Ichiba , Mykhaylo Shkolnikov