Related papers: Large deviations for Markovian nonlinear Hawkes pr…
Over the past few decades, the Hawkes process has become a popular framework for modeling temporal events thanks to its flexibility to capture different dependency structures. The objective of this work is to model call sequences emitted by…
The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…
Markov processes with stochastic resetting towards the origin generically converge towards non-equilibrium steady-states. Long dynamical trajectories can be thus analyzed via the large deviations at Level 2.5 for the joint probability of…
We establish a large deviation principle for the solutions of a class of stochastic partial differential equations with non-Lipschitz continuous coefficients. As an application, the large deviation principle is derived for super-Brownian…
We analyze the macroscopic behavior of multi-populations randomly connected neural networks with interaction delays. Similar to cases occurring in spin glasses, we show that the sequences of empirical measures satisfy a large deviation…
Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…
We consider spatially extended systems of interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modeling large systems of neurons placed in Rd and study the associated mean field limits. As the total number of neurons tends to infinity, we prove that the…
The theory of large deviations has been applied successfully in the last 30 years or so to study the properties of equilibrium systems and to put the foundations of equilibrium statistical mechanics on a clearer and more rigorous footing. A…
In this paper, we study small noise asymptotics of Markov-modulated diffusion processes in the regime that the modulating Markov chain is rapidly switching. We prove the joint sample-path large deviations principle for the Markov-modulated…
Learning the latent network structure from large scale multivariate point process data is an important task in a wide range of scientific and business applications. For instance, we might wish to estimate the neuronal functional…
This article presents a Hawkes process model with Markovian baseline intensities for high-frequency order book data modeling. We classify intraday order book trading events into a range of categories based on their order types and the price…
In the course of Darwinian evolution of a population, punctualism is an important phenomenon whereby long periods of genetic stasis alternate with short periods of rapid evolutionary change. This paper provides a mathematical interpretation…
Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…
This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…
Affine point processes are a class of simple point processes with self- and mutually-exciting properties, and they have found useful applications in several areas. In this paper, we obtain large-time asymptotic expansions in large…
In this paper, we discuss integer-valued autoregressive time series (INAR), Hawkes point processes, and their interrelationship. Besides presenting structural analogies, we derive a convergence theorem. More specifically, we generalize the…
The propagation of chaos and associated law of large numbers for mean-field interacting age-dependent Hawkes processes (when the number of processes n goes to +$\infty$) being granted by the study performed in (Chevallier, 2015), the aim of…
The Hawkes process has garnered attention in recent years for its suitability to describe the behavior of online information cascades. Here, we present a fully tractable approach to analytically describe the distribution of the number of…
Stochastic processes with random reinforced relocations have been introduced in the physics literature to model animal foraging behaviour. Such a process evolves as a Markov process, except at random relocation times, when it chooses a time…
We investigate the parameter recovery of Markov-switching ordinary differential processes from discrete observations, where the differential equations are nonlinear additive models. This framework has been widely applied in biological…