Related papers: Large deviations for Markovian nonlinear Hawkes pr…
We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the…
The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system which exhibits the self-exciting property - that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model, and its…
Foundational marked temporal point process (MTPP) models, such as the Hawkes process, often use inexpressive model families in order to offer interpretable parameterizations of event data. On the other hand, neural MTPPs models forego this…
We consider a new class of non Markovian processes with a countable number of interacting components, both in discrete and continuous time. Each component is represented by a point process indicating if it has a spike or not at a given…
We consider two Ito equations that evolve on different time scales. The equations are fully coupled in the sense that all coefficients may depend on both the "slow" and the "fast" processes and the diffusion terms may be correlated. The…
Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…
We establish a sharp large deviation principle for renewal-reward processes, supposing that each renewal involves a broad-sense reward taking values in a real separable Banach space. In fact, we demonstrate a weak large deviation principle…
A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…
Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…
Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…
This paper focuses on systems of nonlinear second-order stochastic differential equations with multi-scales. The motivation for our study stems from mathematical physics and statistical mechanics, for examples, Langevin dynamics and…
We construct a general procedure for the Quasi Likelihood Analysis applied to a multivariate point process on the real half line in an ergodic framework. More precisely, we assume that the stochastic intensity of the underlying model…
Large and moderate deviation probabilities play an important role in many applied areas, such as insurance and risk analysis. This paper studies the exact moderate and large deviation asymptotics in non-logarithmic form for linear processes…
We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…
Properties of strong mixing have been established for the stationary linear Hawkes process in the univariate case, and can serve as a basis for statistical applications. In this paper, we provide the technical arguments needed to extend the…
The stationarity is assumed in vanilla Hawkes process, which reduces the model complexity but introduces a strong assumption. In this paper, we propose a fast multi-resolution segmentation algorithm to capture the time-varying…
Suppose $ E$ is a space with a null-recurrent Markov kernel $ P$. Furthermore, suppose there are infinite particles with variable weights on $ E$ performing a random walk following $ P$. Let $ X_{t}$ be a weighted functional of the position…
Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…
We consider a class of tempered subordinators, namely a class of subordinators with one-dimensional marginal tempered distributions which belong to a family studied in [3]. The main contribution in this paper is a non-central moderate…
Due to its low computational cost, Lasso is an attractive regularization method for high-dimensional statistical settings. In this paper, we consider multivariate counting processes depending on an unknown function parameter to be estimated…