English

Delayed Hawkes birth-death processes

Probability 2025-07-24 v2

Abstract

We introduce, and formally establish, a variant of the Hawkes-fed birth-death process -- the delayed Hawkes birth-death process -- in which the conditional intensity does not increase at arrivals but at departures from the system. In a scaling limit where sojourn times are stretched out by a factor T\sqrt T, after which time gets contracted by a factor TT, the delayed Hawkes process behaves markedly differently from its classical counterpart. We design a family of models admitting a cluster representation and containing the Hawkes and delayed Hawkes processes as special cases. The cluster representation allows for transform characterizations by a fixed-point equation and for analysis of heavy-tailed asymptotics. We compare the delayed Hawkes process to the classical Hawkes process using stochastic ordering, which enables us to describe stationary distributions and heavy-traffic behavior. In the Markovian network case, a recursive procedure is presented to calculate the ddth-order moments analytically.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2306.12812,
  title  = {Delayed Hawkes birth-death processes},
  author = {Justin Baars and Roger J. A. Laeven and Michel Mandjes},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.12812},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Significantly expanded and completely rewritten compared to the early draft v1. 48 pages. 1 figure

R2 v1 2026-06-28T11:11:48.252Z