Related papers: A Contextual Risk Model for the Ellsberg Paradox
Models of a phenomenon are often developed by examining it under different experimental conditions, or measurement contexts. The resultant probabilistic models assume that the underlying random variables, which define a measurable set of…
An empirical model is a generalization of a probability space. It consists of a simplicial complex of subsets of a class X of random variables such that each simplex has an associated probability distribution. The ensuing marginalizations…
This paper investigates the expected excess risk of in-context learning (ICL) for multiclass classification. We formalize each task as a sequence of labeled examples followed by a query input; a pretrained model then estimates the query's…
In economics, risk aversion is modeled via a concave Bernoulli utility within the expected-utility paradigm. We propose a simple test of expected utility and concavity. We find little support for either: only 30 percent of the choices are…
Completeness and transitivity are standard rationality conditions in economics. However, under ambiguity, decision makers sometimes violate these requirements because of the difficulty of forming accurate predictions about ambiguous events.…
Contextuality is a central feature of quantum theory, traditionally understood as the impossibility of reproducing quantum measurement statistics using noncontextual ontological models. We study classical ontological descriptions in which a…
We prove a theorem which shows that a collection of experimental data of probabilistic weights related to decisions with respect to situations and their disjunction cannot be modeled within a classical probabilistic weight structure in case…
The notion of context (complex of physical conditions) is basic in this paper. We show that the main structures of quantum theory (interference of probabilities, Born's rule, complex probabilistic amplitudes, Hilbert state space,…
Contextuality, the impossibility of assigning a single random variable to represent the outcomes of the same measurement procedure under different experimental conditions, is a central aspect of quantum mechanics. Thus defined, it appears…
This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are…
This work presents an asset pricing model that under rational expectation equilibrium perspective shows how, depending on risk aversion and noise volatility, a risky-asset has one equilibrium price that differs in term of efficiency: an…
Recently the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics, especially methods of quantum probability theory, started to be widely used in a variety of applications outside of physics, e.g., cognition and psychology as well as economy and…
Within the Dempster-Schafer theory of evidence a non-Kolmogorovian kind of epistemic uncertainty arises, which is encoded using multi-valued maps. We analyse the possible implications such non-Kolmogorovian epistemic uncertainty may have…
It has been argued that one role of social constructs, such as institutions, trust and norms, is to coordinate the expectations of autonomous entities in order to resolve collective action situations (such as collective risk dilemmas)…
The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social…
The recent crash demonstrated (once again) that the description of the financial market by present financial mathematics cannot be considered as totally satisfactory. We remind that nowadays financial mathematics is heavily based on the use…
Wigner's Friend-type paradoxes challenge the assumption that events are absolute -- that when we measure a system, we obtain a single result, which is not relative to anything or anyone else. These paradoxes highlight the tension between…
This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both the drift and volatility of the driving process. At a technical level, the analysis requires a…
Hardy-type paradoxes offer elegant, inequality-free proof of quantum contextuality. In this work, we introduce a unified logical formulation for general Hardy-type paradoxes, which we term logical Hardy-type paradoxes. We prove that for any…
In direct response to requests for a logico-mathematical test of the conjecture, we formally disprove a recently conjectured artificial intelligence trade-off between epistemic certainty and scope in its published universal hyperbolic…