Related papers: A Contextual Risk Model for the Ellsberg Paradox
In this article we propose an approach that models the truth behavior of cognitive entities (i.e. sets of connected propositions) by taking into account in a very explicit way the possible influence of the cognitive person (the one that…
Contextuality is a feature of quantum correlations. It is crucial from a foundational perspective as a nonclassical phenomenon, and from an applied perspective as a resource for quantum advantage. It is commonly defined in terms of hidden…
In this paper we analyse some of the classical paradoxes in Social Choice Theory (namely, the Condorcet paradox, the discursive dilemma, the Ostrogorski paradox and the multiple election paradox) using a general framework for the study of…
Wigner's Friend scenarios push the boundaries of quantum theory by modeling agents, along with their memories storing measurement outcomes, as physical quantum systems. Extending these ideas beyond quantum theory, we ask: in which physical…
The thesis of this essay is that, in heterogeneous agent macroeconomics, the assumption of rational expectations about equilibrium prices is unrealistic and should be replaced. Rational expectations imply that decision makers forecast…
We interpret the Leggett-Garg (LG) inequality as a kind of contextual probabilistic inequality in which one combines data collected in experiments performed for three different contexts. In the original version of the inequality these…
We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions,…
Recently, the educational initiative TED-Ed has published a popular brain teaser coined the 'frog riddle', which illustrates non-intuitive implications of conditional probabilities. In its intended form, the frog riddle is a reformulation…
When aggregating logically interconnected judgments from $n$ agents, the result might be inconsistent with the logical connection. This inconsistency is known as the doctrinal paradox, which plays a central role in the field of judgment…
Many seemingly paradoxical effects are known in the predictions for outcomes of intermediate measurements made on pre- and post-selected quantum systems. Despite appearances, these effects do not demonstrate the impossibility of a…
Counterfactual utilities evaluate decisions not only by the realized outcome under a given decision, but also by the counterfactual outcomes that would arise under alternative decisions. By generalizing standard utility frameworks, they…
The presence of contextuality in quantum theory was first highlighted by Bell, Kochen and Specker, who discovered that for quantum systems of three or more dimensions, measurements cannot be viewed as revealing pre-existing properties of…
Desirability can be understood as an extension of Anscombe and Aumann's Bayesian decision theory to sets of expected utilities. At the core of desirability lies an assumption of linearity of the scale in which rewards are measured. It is a…
Ambiguities of natural language do not preclude us from using it and context helps in getting ideas across. They, nonetheless, pose a key challenge to the development of competent machines to understand natural language and use it as humans…
The mathematical formalism of quantum theory exhibits significant effectiveness when applied to cognitive phenomena that have resisted traditional (set theoretical) modeling. Relying on a decade of research on the operational foundations of…
In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their beliefs. We…
The disjunction effect in human decision making is often taken to show that the classical law of total probability is violated, motivating quantum-like models. We re-examine this claim for the Prisoner's Dilemma disjunction effect. Under…
Contextuality is regarded as a non-classical feature, challenging our everyday intuition; quantum contextuality is currently seen as a resource for many applications in quantum computation, being responsible for quantum advantage over…
The St. Petersburg paradox is the oldest paradox in decision theory and has played a pivotal role in the introduction of increasing concave utility functions embodying risk aversion and decreasing marginal utility of gains. All attempts to…
People often deviate from expected utility theory when making risky and intertemporal choices. While the effects of probabilistic risk and time delay have been extensively studied in isolation, their interplay and underlying theoretical…