Related papers: A Contextual Risk Model for the Ellsberg Paradox
Preference cycles are prevalent in problems of decision-making, and are contradictory when preferences are assumed to be transitive. This contradiction underlies Condorcet's Paradox, a pioneering result of Social Choice Theory, wherein…
We introduce a new concept called uncertainty spaces which is an extended concept of probability spaces. Then, we express n-layer uncertainty which we call hierarchical uncertainty by a hierarchically constructed sequence of uncertainty…
The concept of informal mathematical proof considered in intuitionism is apparently vulnerable to a version of the liar paradox. However, a careful reevaluation of this concept reveals a subtle error whose correction blocks the…
It has recently been found that Bell scenarios are only a small subclass of interesting setups for studying the non-classical features of quantum theory within spacetime. We find that it is possible to talk about classical correlations,…
Gilboa and Schmeidler's (1989) uncertainty aversion plays a central role in decision theory and economics, yet many inconsistent behaviors have been observed in experiments. Motivated by this, we study an axiom postulating a minimal degree…
We consider the problem of guessing the realization of a random variable but under more general Tsallis' non-extensive entropic framework rather than the classical Maxwell-Boltzman-Gibbs-Shannon framework. We consider both the conditional…
We study structural limitations of purely algebraic reasoning in the analysis of arithmetic dynamical systems. Rather than addressing the truth of specific conjectures, we introduce a fragment - relative notion of algebraic refutability for…
What if the paradoxical nature of quantum theory could find its source in some undecidability analog to that of G\"odel's incompleteness theorem ? This essay aims at arguing for such G\"odelian hunch via two case studies. Firstly, using a…
We explore "omitted label contexts," in which training data is limited to a subset of the possible labels. This setting is standard among specialized human experts or specific, focused studies. By studying Simpson's paradox, we observe that…
Modern physics is founded on two mainstays: mathematical modelling and empirical verification. These two assumptions are prerequisite for the objectivity of scientific discourse. Here we show, however, that they are contradictory, leading…
F-systems are digraphs that enable to model sentences that predicate the falsity of other sentences. Paradoxes like the Liar and Yablo's can be analyzed with that tool to find graph-theoretic patterns. In this paper we present the F-systems…
We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show…
Conditional probabilities in quantum systems which have both initial and final boundary conditions are commonly evaluated using the Aharonov-Bergmann-Lebowitz rule. In this short note we present a seemingly disturbing paradox that appears…
It is useful to have a criterion for when the predictions of an operational theory should be considered classically explainable. Here we take the criterion to be that the theory admits of a generalized-noncontextual ontological model.…
We present a classical probability model appropriate to the description of quantum randomness. This tool, that we have called stochastic gauge system, constitutes a contextual scheme in which the Kolmogorov probability space depends upon…
Contextuality is a central property in comparative analysis of classical, quantum, and supercorrelated systems. We examine and compare two well-motivated approaches to contextuality. One approach ("contextuality-by-default") is based on the…
An operational definition of contextuality is introduced which generalizes the standard notion in three ways: (1) it applies to arbitrary operational theories rather than just quantum theory, (2) it applies to arbitrary experimental…
There has been a surge of recent interest in the Wigner's Friend paradox, sparking several novel thought experiments and no-go theorems. The main narrative has been that Wigner's Friend highlights a counterintuitive feature that is unique…
Although expected utility theory has proven a fruitful and elegant theory in the finite realm, attempts to generalize it to infinite values have resulted in many paradoxes. In this paper, we argue that the use of John Conway's surreal…
The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for key policy relevant quantities such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) has become increasingly widespread in recent years. Many researchers, however, claim that emergent…