Related papers: A Contextual Risk Model for the Ellsberg Paradox
The formalism of abstracted quantum mechanics is applied in a model of the generalized Liar Paradox. Here, the Liar Paradox, a consistently testable configuration of logical truth properties, is considered a dynamic conceptual entity in the…
The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk…
A decision maker starts from a judgmental decision and moves to the closest boundary of the confidence interval. This statistical decision rule is admissible and does not perform worse than the judgmental decision with a probability equal…
The fields of quantum non-locality in physics, and causal discovery in machine learning, both face the problem of deciding whether observed data is compatible with a presumed causal relationship between the variables (for example a local…
The conspiracy of ontic states responding to measurements contextually to comply with noncontextual quantum mechanical probabilities is analyzed for general ontological models. A general physical picture of ontological space structure and…
Expected Utility: Algebraic Expected Utility In this paper, we provide two axiomatizations of algebraic expected utility, which is a particular generalized expected utility, in a von Neumann-Morgenstern setting, i.e. uncertainty…
Experiments in cognitive science and decision theory show that the ways in which people combine concepts and make decisions cannot be described by classical logic and probability theory. This has serious implications for applied disciplines…
The Quantum Decision Theory, developed recently by the authors, is applied to clarify the role of risk and uncertainty in decision making and in particular in relation to the phenomenon of dynamic inconsistency. By formulating this notion…
We present a new experiment demonstrating destructive interference in customers' estimates of conditional probabilities of product failure. We take the perspective of a manufacturer of consumer products, and consider two situations of cause…
Barseghyan and Molinari (2023) give sufficient conditions for semi-nonparametric point identification of parameters of interest in a mixture model of decision-making under risk, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity in utility functions and…
Beginning with the Bell theorem, cyclic systems of dichotomous random variables have been the object of many foundational findings in quantum mechanics. Here, we ask the question: if one chooses a cyclic system "at random" (uniformly within…
A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction, disjunction, inverse, and conditional fallacies, as well as unpacking effects and partitioning effects. Quantum…
This survey reviews recent developments in revealed preference theory. It discusses the testable implications of theories of choice that are germane to specific economic environments. The focus is on expected utility in risky environments;…
We propose a game-theoretic framework that incorporates both incomplete information and general ambiguity attitudes on factors external to all players. Our starting point is players' preferences on payoff-distribution vectors, essentially…
Noncooperative games with uncertain payoffs have been classically studied under the expected-utility theory framework, which relies on the strong assumption that agents behave rationally. However, simple experiments on human decision makers…
In [Found. Phys. 48.12 (2018): 1669], the notion of 'epistemic horizon' was introduced as an explanation for many of the puzzling features of quantum mechanics. There, it was shown that Lawvere's theorem, which forms the categorical…
Contextuality is a key feature of quantum mechanics. We present the sheaf-theoretic approach to contextuality introduced by Abramsky and Brandenburger, and show how it covers a range of logical and physical phenomena "at the borders of…
Hazard serves as a pivotal estimand in both practical applications and methodological frameworks. However, its causal interpretation poses notable challenges, including inherent selection biases and ill-defined populations to be compared…
Contextuality is a key distinguishing feature between classical and quantum physics. It expresses a fundamental obstruction to describing quantum theory using classical concepts. In turn, when understood as a resource for quantum…
Preferences for mixing can reveal ambiguity perception and attitude on a single event. The validity of the approach is discussed for multiple preference classes including maxmin, maxmax, variational, and smooth second-order preferences. An…