Related papers: Testing earthquake predictions
In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability $p$ . In both topologies, we have studied…
Two new test statistics are introduced to test the null hypotheses that the sampling distribution has an increasing hazard rate on a specified interval [0,a]. These statistics are empirical L_1-type distances between the isotonic estimates,…
In the report the approach to estimation of quality of planned experiments is considered. This approach is based on the analysis of uncertainty, which will take place under the future hypotheses testing about the existence of a new…
Induced seismicity has emerged as a source of a significant earthquake hazard associated with recent development of unconventional energy resources. Therefore, it is imperative to develop stochastic models that can accurately describe the…
Network interference amounts to the treatment status of one unit affecting the potential outcome of other units in the population. Testing for spillover effects in this setting makes the null hypothesis non-sharp. An interesting approach to…
The statistics and machine learning communities have recently seen a growing interest in classification-based approaches to two-sample testing. The outcome of a classification-based two-sample test remains a rejection decision, which is not…
We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in…
Over the last two decades, strain and GPS measurements have shown that slow slip on earthquake faults is a widespread phenomenon. Slow slip is also inferred from correlated small amplitude seismic signals known as nonvolcanic tremor and low…
Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we…
Probabilistic forecasts must sum to unity and cannot express ``I don't know.'' Possibility theory relaxes this constraint: a subnormal distribution explicitly measures how much of the plausibility budget remains unassigned, ignorance signal…
The score test statistic using the observed information is easy to compute numerically. Its large sample distribution under the null hypothesis is well known and is equivalent to that of the score test based on the expected information, the…
We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $\tau_0$. As a…
Although the assumption of elliptical symmetry is quite common in multivariate analysis and widespread in a number of applications, the problem of testing the null hypothesis of ellipticity so far has not been addressed in a fully…
Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognised to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. Till now, no statistically significant…
A novel geomechanics concept is presented for studying the behavior of geomaterials and structures by capturing the underlying dynamics as realistically as possible for earthquake excitation applied in time domain. Enormous amount of…
Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to…
Suppose you are told that taking a statin will reduce your risk of a heart attack or stroke by 3% in the next ten years, or that women have better emotional intelligence than men. You may wonder how accurate the 3% is, or how confident we…
Randomization tests allow simple and unambiguous tests of null hypotheses, by comparing observed data to a null ensemble in which experimentally-controlled variables are randomly resampled. In behavioral and neuroscience experiments,…
Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…
Spatiotemporal properties of seismicity are investigated for a worldwide (WW) catalog and for Southern California in the stationary case (SC), showing a nearly universal scaling behavior. Distributions of distances between consecutive…