Related papers: Testing earthquake predictions

An attempt to construct a phenomenological theory of earthquakes is being undertaken by a small research team, which includes the author. We have only taken the first steps towards goal, but the results already obtained convincingly…

Waiting-time statistics are generated from the Olami-Feder-Christensen model and shown to mimic some aspects of real seismicity. Preliminary analysis of the model data implies a recently proposed universal scaling law for the distribution…

This paper addresses the possibility of using robust control theory for preventing earthquakes through fluid injections in the earth's crust. The designed robust controllers drive aseismically a fault system to a new equilibrium point of…

It has been shown [Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011); Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude $M$ greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance $\kappa_1$ of natural…

We consider the problem of estimating the number of false null hypotheses among a very large number of independently tested hypotheses, focusing on the situation in which the proportion of false null hypotheses is very small. We propose a…

A recently proposed method of constructing seismic networks from 'record breaking events' from the earthquake catalog of California (Phy. Rev. E, 77 6,066104, 2008) was successfull in establishing causal features to seismicity and arrive at…

In the framework of semiparametric distribution regression, we consider the problem of comparing the conditional distribution functions corresponding to two samples. In contrast to testing for exact equality, we are interested in the (null)…

In many fields of research null hypothesis significance tests and p values are the accepted way of assessing the degree of certainty with which research results can be extrapolated beyond the sample studied. However, there are very serious…

Machine learning regression can predict macroscopic fault properties such as shear stress, friction, and time to failure using continuous records of fault zone acoustic emissions. Here we show that a similar approach is successful using…

In every sphere of science, theories make predictions and experiments validate them. However, common experience suggests that theoretically predicted exact magnitude for a parameter, constitute a small subset of all the experimentally…

A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…

For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervals of about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), the applicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. A viable…

Earthquakes, as natural phenomena, have continuously caused damage and loss of human life historically. Earthquake prediction is an essential aspect of any society's plans and can increase public preparedness and reduce damage to a great…

It is shown that considering a fixed increment of a given magnitude at a fault is equivalent to factoring the mechanical moment at the fault as done in structural engineering with the applied loads, by the most currently used structural…

Randomization tests are based on a re-randomization of existing data to gain data-dependent critical values that lead to exact hypothesis tests under special circumstances. However, it is not always possible to re-randomize data in…

Earthquake network captures the complexity of seismicity in a peculiar manner. Given a seismic data, the procedure of constructing an earthquake network proposed in [S. Abe, N, Suzuki, Europhys. Lett. 65 (2004) 581] contains as a single…

We develop a monitoring procedure to detect changes in a large approximate factor model. Letting $r$ be the number of common factors, we base our statistics on the fact that the $\left( r+1\right) $-th eigenvalue of the sample covariance…

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

We prove the efficiency of a new method for the detection of crucial events that might have useful applications to the war against terrorism. This has to do with the search for rare but significant events, a theme of research that has been…

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…