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Related papers: Testing earthquake predictions

200 papers

We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Kristy F. Tiampo , John B. Rundle , Seth McGinnis , Susanna Gross , William Klein

Earthquakes are a major threat to nations worldwide. Earthquake detection is an important scientific challenge, not only for its social impacts, but also since it reflects the actual degree of understanding of the physical processes…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-05-05 Yosef Ashkenazy , Ittai Kurzon , Eitan Asher

In the last few years, deep learning has solved seemingly intractable problems, boosting the hope to find approximate solutions to problems that now are considered unsolvable. Earthquake prediction, the Grail of Seismology, is, in this…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2020-05-26 Arnaud Mignan , Marco Broccardo

A model for fault dynamics consisting of two rough and rigid brownian profiles that slide one over the other is introduced. An earthquake occurs when there is an intersection between the two profiles. The energy release is proportional to…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2019-08-17 V. De Rubeis , R. Hallgass , V. Loreto , G. Paladin , L. Pietronero , P. Tosi

We develop an efficient numerical scheme to solve accurately the set of nonlinear integral equations derived previously in (Saichev and Sornette, 2007), which describes the distribution of inter-event times in the framework of a general…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 D. Sornette , S. Utkin , A. Saichev

We estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering, assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress changes and that earthquakes are located on a fractal…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-09-06 A. Helmstetter , Y. Y. Kagan , D. D. Jackson

Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-07-08 Rene C. Batac , Holger Kantz

Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and…

The $b$-value in earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution quantifies the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. Monitoring its evolution could provide fundamental insights into temporal variations of stress on different…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-06-19 Eugenio Lippiello , Giuseppe Petrillo

We present a new test of hypothesis in which we seek the probability of the null conditioned on the data, where the null is a simplification undertaken to counter the intractability of the more complex model, that the simpler null model is…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-20 Dalia Chakrabarty

One of the main interests in seismology is the formulation of models able to describe the clustering in time occurrence of earthquakes. Analysis of the Southern California Catalog shows magnitude clustering in correspondence to temporal…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Eugenio Lippiello , Cataldo Godano , Lucilla de Arcangelis

The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-03 Ziye Yu , Jinqing Sun , Yuqi Cai , Zemin Liu , Pingping Wu , Xin Liu , Jiayan Tan

We propose a new metric to quantify the correlation between any two earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Marco Baiesi , Maya Paczuski

Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-10-02 Pierre Romanet , Harsha S. Bhat , Romain Jolivet , Raúl Madariaga

The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional error diagram (n,tau), where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is the normalized measure of space-time alarm. The most interesting…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-05-19 G. Molchan , L. Romashkova

Do completely unpredictable events exist in nature? Classical theory, being fully deterministic, completely excludes fundamental randomness. On the contrary, quantum theory allows for randomness within its axiomatic structure. Yet, the fact…

We study the structural similarity of earthquake networks constructed from seismic catalogs of different geographical regions. A hierarchical clustering of underlying undirected earthquake networks is shown using Jensen-Shannon divergence…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-05-24 Krishanu Deyasi , Abhijit Chakraborty , Anirban Banerjee

The conventional nonparametric tests in survival analysis, such as the log-rank test, assess the null hypothesis that the hazards are equal at all times. However, hazards are hard to interpret causally, and other null hypotheses are more…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-29 Mats Julius Stensrud , Kjetil Røysland , Pål Christie Ryalen

This paper presents a procedure for testing the hypothesis that the underlying distribution of the data is elliptical when using robust location and scatter estimators instead of the sample mean and covariance matrix. Under mild assumptions…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-20 Ana M. Bianco , Graciela Boente , Isabel M. Rodrigues

Quantum theory (QT) provides statistical predictions for various physical phenomena. The outcomes of these measurements are in general some numerical time series registered by some macroscopic instruments. The various empirical probability…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-05-13 Marian Kupczynski