The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California
Statistical Mechanics
2007-05-23 v1
Abstract
We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and future earthquake occurrence. Thousands of statistical tests indicate the method has considerable forecast skill. We emphasize that the method is not a model, and there are no unconstrained or free parameters to be determined by fits to training data sets.
Cite
@article{arxiv.cond-mat/0102032,
title = {The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California},
author = {Kristy F. Tiampo and John B. Rundle and Seth McGinnis and Susanna Gross and William Klein},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:cond-mat/0102032},
year = {2007}
}
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