Related papers: Testing earthquake predictions
Seismicity and faulting within the Earth crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase…
Statistical hypothesis tests typically use prespecified sample sizes, yet data often arrive sequentially. Interim analyses invalidate classical error guarantees, while existing sequential methods require rigid testing preschedules or incur…
Particle physics experiments use likelihood ratio tests extensively to compare hypotheses and to construct confidence intervals. Often, the null distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic is approximated by a $\chi^2$ distribution,…
As an object of study, we chose the global activity of strong earthquakes (M > 7). The subject of the study is the waiting time for the next strong earthquake. The purpose of the study is to compare two distributions of waiting time, one of…
It is shown that earthquakes do not know how large they will become, at least from the information collected at seismic catalogs. In other words, the magnitude is independent on previous magnitudes as well as on the waiting time between…
The existence of magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported. Such a correlation is linked to the issue of seismic predictability and remains under intense debate whether it is physical or is caused by incomplete data…
Randomization tests deliver exact finite-sample Type 1 error control when the null satisfies the randomization hypothesis. In practice, achieving these guarantees often requires stronger conditions than the null hypothesis of primary…
In Geosciences a class of phenomena that is widely studied given its real impact on human life are the tectonic faults slip. These landslides have different ways to manifest, ranging from aseismic events of slow displacement (slow slips) to…
The number of successes 'n' and the normalized measure of space-time alarm 'tau' are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. To evaluate better the…
We present a new method of data clustering applied to earthquake catalogs, with the goal of reconstructing the seismically active part of fault networks. We first use an original method to separate clustered events from uncorrelated…
The inter-event time, IET, is sometimes used as a basis for prediction of large earthquakes. It is the case when theoretical analysis of prediction is possible. Quite recently a specific IET- model was suggested for dynamic probabilistic…
The paper by Taroni et al. (2016) considers results of forward prediction of Italian strong earthquakes by CN algorithm with the declared intent of providing "a careful assessment of CN prediction performances... using standard testing…
I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…
Testing the global earthquake catalogue for indications of non-Poissonian attributes has been an area of intense research, especially since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The usual approach is to test statistically for the hypothesis that the…
Numerical simulation of seismicity has been successfully developed and used for the two last decades. Presently, the general theory of modeling and the progress in computational techniques provide wide options for simulation of seismic and…
A likely source of earthquake clustering is static stress transfer between individual events. Previous attempts to quantify the role of static stress for earthquake triggering generally considered only the stress changes caused by large…
We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of…
Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) are essential in probabilistic seismic hazard studies for estimating the ground motions generated by the seismic sources. In low seismicity regions, only weak motions are available in the lifetime…
In the present paper we have conducted studies on seismological properties using worldwide data of deep earthquakes (depth larger than 70 km), considering events with magnitude $m \geq 4.5$. We have addressed the problem under the…
A test of the null hypothesis that a hazard rate is monotone nondecreasing, versus the alternative that it is not, is proposed. Both the test statistic and the means of calibrating it are new. Unlike previous approaches, neither is based on…