Related papers: Testing earthquake predictions
Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it…
Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from…
There is a well-known problem in Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: many statistically significant results fail to replicate in subsequent experiments. We show that this problem arises because standard `point-form null' significance…
Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any…
Forecast evaluations aim to choose an accurate forecast for making decisions by using loss functions. However, different loss functions often generate different ranking results for forecasts, which complicates the task of comparisons. In…
Earthquakes can be detected by matching spatial patterns or phase properties from 1-D seismic waves. Current earthquake detection methods, such as waveform correlation and template matching, have difficulty detecting anomalous earthquakes…
Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…
Discoveries of the scale-free and small-world features are reported on a network constructed from the seismic data. It is shown that the connectivity distribution decays as a power law, and the value of the degrees of separation, i.e., the…
This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…
When a scientist performs an experiment they normally acquire a set of measurements and are expected to demonstrate that their results are "statistically significant" thus confirming whatever hypothesis they are testing. The main method for…
We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of earthquake occurrence: these distributions are the Poisson,…
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS < MT in the area, together with the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…
The issue addressed in this paper is that of testing for common breaks across or within equations of a multivariate system. Our framework is very general and allows integrated regressors and trends as well as stationary regressors. The null…
Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's…
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of…
This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of…
Any periodic variations of earthquake occurrence rates in response to small, known, periodic stress variations provide important opportunities to learn about the earthquake nucleation process. Yet, reliable detection of earthquake…
Practical problems with missing data are common, and statistical methods have been developed concerning the validity and/or efficiency of statistical procedures. On a central focus, there have been longstanding interests on the mechanism…
We study statistical properties of the number of large earthquakes over the past century. We analyze the cumulative distribution of the number of earthquakes with magnitude larger than threshold M in time interval T, and quantify the…
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…