Related papers: Response to the Letter to the Editor
A goal in the forensic interpretation of scientific evidence is to make an inference about the source of a trace of unknown origin. The evidence is composed of the following three elements: (a) the trace of unknown origin, (b) a sample from…
Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at the law through the lens of probability theory: "The prophecies of what the courts will do in fact, and nothing more pretentious, are what I mean by the law." Yet few…
This is a typeset version of Alan Turing's declassified Second World War paper \textit{Paper on Statistics of Repetitions}. See the companion paper, \textit{The Applications of Probability to Cryptography}, also available from arXiv at…
Many resources for forensic scholars and practitioners, such as journal articles, guidance documents, and textbooks, address how to make a value of evidence assessment in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) when deciding between two…
Causal inference in completely randomized treatment-control studies with binary outcomes is discussed from Fisherian, Neymanian and Bayesian perspectives, using the potential outcomes framework. A randomization-based justification of…
Despite a previous description of his state as a stable fixed point, just past midnight this morning Mr. Boddy was murdered again. In fact, over 70 years Mr. Boddy has been reported murdered $10^6$ times, while there exist no documented…
Forensic scientists are often criticised for the lack of quantitative support for the conclusions of their examinations. While scholars advocate for the use of a Bayes factor to quantify the weight of forensic evidence, it is often…
Retrocausal models of QM add further weight to the conflict between causality and the possible existence of free will. We analyze a simple closed causal loop ensuing from the interaction between two systems with opposing thermodynamic time…
Contradictory conclusions have been made about whether unarmed blacks are more likely to be shot by police than unarmed whites using the same data. The problem is that, by relying only on data of 'police encounters', there is the…
Objective probability in quantum mechanics is often thought to involve a stochastic process whereby an actual future is selected from a range of possibilities. Everett's seminal idea is that all possible definite futures on the pointer…
This paper is a successor of \cite{laceyt}. In that paper we considered bilinear operators of the form H_alpha(f_1,f_2)(x) = p.v. \int f_1(x-t) f_2(x + alpha t)/t dt, which are originally defined for f_1, f_2 in the Schwartz class S(R). The…
Forensic examiners and attorneys need to know how to express evidence in favor or against a prosecutor's hypothesis in a way that avoids the prosecutor's fallacy and follows the modern reporting standards for forensic evidence. This article…
An apparent paradox proposed by Aharonov and Vaidman in which a single particle can be found with certainty in two (or more) boxes is analyzed by way of a simple thought experiment. It is found that the apparent paradox arises from an…
Our interest is whether two binomial parameters differ, which parameter is larger, and by how much. This apparently simple problem was addressed by Fisher in the 1930's, and has been the subject of many review papers since then. Yet there…
In this reply, we hope to bring clarifications about the reservations expressed by Floyd in his comments, give further explanations about the choice of the approach and show that our fundamental result can be reproduced by other ways. We…
Evidence in probabilistic reasoning may be 'hard' or 'soft', that is, it may be of yes/no form, or it may involve a strength of belief, in the unit interval [0, 1]. Reasoning with soft, [0, 1]-valued evidence is important in many situations…
In this paper, I will demonstrate a new perspective on the Two Envelope Problem. I hope to show with convincing clarity how the paradox results from an inherent problem pertaining to the interpretation of Bayesian probability. Specifically,…
Because there are similarities between the evaluation of alternative stories in criminal trials and the evaluation of scientific theories, scholars have looked to literature in epistemology and the philosophy of science for insights on the…
The present paper is written in response to the comment of M. R. Hadizadeh et. al on our original paper "Solution of the Specific Model of Five-body Problem to Investigate the Effective Alpha-Nucleon Interaction in a Partial-Wave analysis"…
A lot. [In this hard, unbiased and objective look at some past and continuing blunders in following Weinberg's suggestions to arrive at a comprehensive description of Nuclear Physics using Effective Field Theories, some names and citations…