Related papers: Response to the Letter to the Editor
We begin by reiterating that common neural network activation functions have simple Bayesian origins. In this spirit, we go on to show that Bayes's theorem also implies a simple recurrence relation; this leads to a Bayesian recurrent unit…
The Prisoner's Dilemma game (PDG) is one of the simple test-beds for the probabilistic nature of the human decision-making process. Behavioral experiments have been conducted on this game for decades and show a violation of the so-called…
Criticisms of so called `subjective probability' come on the one hand from those who maintain that probability in physics has only a frequentistic interpretation, and, on the other, from those who tend to `objectivise' Bayesian theory,…
This paper is an answer to the first part of Adrian Kent's One World versus Many : the Inadequacy of Everettian Accounts of Evolution, Probability, and Scientific Confirmation [arXiv:0905.0624]. We take issue with Kent's arguments against…
Here we focus on the description of the mechanisms behind the process of information aggregation and decision making, a basic step to understand emergent phenomena in society, such as trends, information spreading or the wisdom of crowds.…
We prove that Kilian's four-message succinct argument system is post-quantum secure in the standard model when instantiated with any probabilistically checkable proof and any collapsing hash function (which in turn exist based on the…
The impetus for writing this paper are the well publicized media reports that software failure was the cause of the two recent mishaps of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft. The problem considered here though, is a specific one, in the sense that…
The assumption of fingerprint uniqueness is foundational in forensic science and central to criminal identification practices. However, empirical evidence supporting this assumption is limited, and recent findings from artificial…
The missionary zeal of many Bayesians of old has been matched, in the other direction, by a view among some theoreticians that Bayesian methods are absurd-not merely misguided but obviously wrong in principle. We consider several examples,…
Physicists have, hitherto, mostly adopted a frequentist conception of probability, according to which probability statements apply only to ensembles. It is argued that we should, instead, adopt an epistemic, or Bayesian conception, in which…
We devise a simple modification that essentially doubles the efficiency of a well-known quantum key distribution scheme proposed by Bennett and Brassard (BB84). Our scheme assigns significantly different probabilities for the different…
Two works related to the concept of probability in the framework of the many-worlds interpretation are presented. The first deals with recent controversy in classical probability theory. Elga and D. Lewis argues that Sleeping Beauty should…
Suppose you are told that taking a statin will reduce your risk of a heart attack or stroke by 3% in the next ten years, or that women have better emotional intelligence than men. You may wonder how accurate the 3% is, or how confident we…
We consider a problem introduced by Mossel and Ross [Shotgun assembly of labeled graphs, arXiv:1504.07682]. Suppose a random $n\times n$ jigsaw puzzle is constructed by independently and uniformly choosing the shape of each "jig" from $q$…
Claims of exceptions to the second law of thermodynamics are generally met with extreme skepticism that is quite reasonable given the great confidence placed in the second law. But what specifically is the basis for that confidence? The…
The Open Science Collaboration recently reported that 36% of published findings from psychological studies were reproducible by independent researchers. We can use this information together with Bayes theorem to estimate the statistical…
Original paper: We revisit the probability that any two consecutive events in a Poisson process N on [0,t] are separated by a time interval which is greater than s(<t) (a particular scan statistic probability), and the closely related…
Recent accounts of probability in the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics are vulnerable due to their dependence on probability theory per se. For this reason, the many worlds interpretation continues to suffer from the…
We devise a simple modification that essentially doubles the efficiency of the BB84 quantum key distribution scheme proposed by Bennett and Brassard. We also prove the security of our modified scheme against the most general eavesdropping…
Problem-based learning benefits from situations taken from real life, which arouse student interest. The shooting of Rwanda president aircraft on April 6th, 1994 is still unsolved. We discuss the methods to infer information and conclusions…