Related papers: Response to the Letter to the Editor
The title, a headline, and a typical one, from a newspaper's "Health & Wellness" section, usually written by a reporter who has just read a medical journal, can only be the result of an inductive argument, which is an argument from known…
We used Bayesian methods to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment -- the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents -- with empirical data. The existing record of accidents…
Frequentist (classical) and the Bayesian approaches to the construction of confidence limits are compared. Various examples which illustrate specific problems are presented. The Likelihood Principle and the Stopping Rule Paradox are…
According to Karl Popper assumptions are statements used to construct theories. During the construction of a theory whether the assumptions are either true or false turn out to be irrelevant in view of the fact that, actually, they gain…
"Ever since the advent of modern quantum mechanics in the late 1920's, the idea has been prevalent that the classical laws of probability cease, in some sense, to be valid in the new theory. [...] The primary object of this presentation is…
Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…
The main purpose of this paper is to correct an error in the previously submitted version [*] := arXiv:2004.13749v1. [*] had been already accepted for publication in a scientific journal, but withdrawn by the author after the discovery of…
We study how much data a Bayesian observer needs to correctly infer the relative likelihoods of two events when both events are arbitrarily rare. Each period, either a blue die or a red die is tossed. The two dice land on side $1$ with…
We compare two theoretical approaches to the data analysis of the Cassini relativity experiment based on the Doppler tracking and the time delay technique that were published correspondingly by Kopeikin et al in Phys. Lett. A 367, 276…
If the human race comes to an end relatively shortly, then we have been born at a fairly typical time in history of humanity. On the other hand, if humanity lasts for much longer and trillions of people eventually exist, then we have been…
In a previous work we have shown that the null result of the Michelson-Morley experiment in vacuum is deeply connected with the notion of time. The same is true for the the postulate of constancy of the two-way speed of light in vacuum in…
The occurrence of Simpson's paradox (SP) in $2\times 2$ contingency tables has been well studied. The present work comprehensively revisits this problem using a combination of philosophical reflections, causal considerations, and…
Analysis of credibility is a reverse-Bayes technique that has been proposed by Matthews (2001) to overcome some of the shortcomings of significance tests. A significant result is deemed credible if current knowledge about the effect size is…
This paper has been withdrawn because of an error in the proof of Lemma 1. Without Lemma 1, the result of the main theorem (with the same proof, but omitting the use of Lemma 1 to extend things to general attacks) only holds for attacks in…
We are honoured to have our work read and discussed at such a thorough level by several experts. Words of appreciation and encouragement are gratefully received, while the many supplementary comments, thoughtful reminders, new perspectives…
I employ an optimization-based inference methodology together with an Ising model, in an intentionally ineffectual manner, to get away with murdering an obstreperous scientific collaborator. The antics of this collaborator, hereafter "Conan…
Bayesian inference as applied in a legal setting is about belief transfer and involves a plurality of agents and communication protocols. A forensic expert (FE) may communicate to a trier of fact (TOF) first its value of a certain…
Classical statistics and Bayesian statistics refer to the frequentist and subjective theories of probability respectively. Von Mises and De Finetti, who authored those conceptualizations, provide interpretations of the probability that…
We suggest here a two-point eavesdropping strategy to two nonorthogonal states protocol of quantum key distribution over a fiber-optic channel. Suppose that the single-photon sources and detectors of Alice, Bob and Eves are ideal ones, the…
The widely claimed replicability crisis in science may lead to revised standards of significance. The customary frequentist confidence intervals, calibrated through hypothetical repetitions of the experiment that is supposed to have…