English

On the exact survival probability by setting discrete random variables in E. Sparre Andersen's model

Probability 2024-01-08 v1

Abstract

In this work, we propose a simplification of the Pollaczek-Khinchine formula for the ultimate time survival (or ruin) probability calculation in exchange for a few assumptions on the random variables which generate the renewal risk model. More precisely, we show the expressibility of the distribution function P(supn1i=1n(Xicθi)<u),uN0 \mathbb{P}\left(\sup_{n\geqslant1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}(X_i-c\theta_i)<u\right),\,u\in\mathbb{N}_0 via the roots of the probability generating function GXcθ(s)=1G_{X-c\theta}(s)=1, the expectation E(Xcθ)\mathbb{E}(X-c\theta), and the probability mass function of XcθX-c\theta. We assume that the random variables X1,X2,X_1,\,X_2,\,\ldots and cθ1,cθ2,c\theta_1,\,c\theta_2,\,\ldots are independent copies of XX and cθc\theta respectively, c>0c>0, XX and cθc\theta are independent non-negative and integer-valued, and the support of θ\theta is finite. We give few numerical outputs of the proven theoretical statements when the mentioned random variables admit some particular distributions.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2306.16897,
  title  = {On the exact survival probability by setting discrete random variables in E. Sparre Andersen's model},
  author = {Andrius Grigutis},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.16897},
  year   = {2024}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-28T11:17:51.963Z