English

A characterization of ruin-inducing probability measures in a renewal risk model

Probability 2026-04-28 v1

Abstract

In this work, we derive a complete characterization of all ruin-inducing probability measures that preserve the structure of a given compound renewal process in terms of suitable pairs of functions (γ,δ)(\gamma,\delta). This result allows us to obtain an explicit representation of the infinite-time ruin probability as an expectation under any ruin-inducing probability measure. A key feature of our approach is that the construction of these measures does not rely on the existence of moment generating functions, and is therefore applicable to heavy-tailed claim size distributions. The proposed framework includes the classical Esscher transform as a special case.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2604.24061,
  title  = {A characterization of ruin-inducing probability measures in a renewal risk model},
  author = {Spyridon M. Tzaninis and Apostolos Bozikas},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.24061},
  year   = {2026}
}