English

Distribution of shifted discrete random walk generated by distinct random variables and applications in ruin theory

Probability 2024-03-22 v1

Abstract

In this paper, we set up the distribution function φ(u)=P(supn1i=1n(Xiκ)<u), \varphi(u)=\mathbb{P}\left(\sup_{n\geqslant 1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\left(X_i-\kappa\right)<u\right), and the generating function of φ(u+1)\varphi(u+1), where uN0u\in\mathbb{N}_0, κN\kappa\in\mathbb{N}, the random walk {i=1nXi,nN},\left\{\sum_{i=1}^{n}X_i, n\in\mathbb{N}\right\}, consists of NNN\in\mathbb{N} periodically occurring distributions, and the integer-valued and non-negative random variables X1,X2,X_1,\,X_2,\,\ldots are independent. This research generalizes two recent works where {κ=1,NN}\{\kappa=1,\,N\in\mathbb{N}\} and {κN,N=1}\{\kappa\in\mathbb{N},\,N=1\} were considered respectively. The provided sequence of sums {i=1n(Xiκ),nN}\left\{\sum_{i=1}^{n}\left(X_i-\kappa\right),\,n\in\mathbb{N}\right\} generates so-called multi-seasonal discrete-time risk model with arbitrary natural premium and its known distribution enables to calculate the ultimate time ruin probability 1φ(u)1-\varphi(u) or survival probability φ(u)\varphi(u). Verifying obtained theoretical statements we demonstrate several computational examples for survival probability φ(u)\varphi(u) and its generating function when {κ=2,N=2}\{\kappa=2,\,N=2\}, {κ=3,N=2}\{\kappa=3,\,N=2\}, {κ=5,N=10}\{\kappa=5,\,N=10\} and XiX_i admits Poisson and some other distributions. We also conjecture the non-singularity of certain matrices.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2211.14629,
  title  = {Distribution of shifted discrete random walk generated by distinct random variables and applications in ruin theory},
  author = {Simonas Gervė and Andrius Grigutis},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.14629},
  year   = {2024}
}